玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 理想的成長型公司, 本業EPS的成長幅度會大於營收的成長幅度
  • 營收到某個數字後, 本業EPS呈現不成比例的增加, 有可能是規模經濟的效應
  • 如果是有淡旺季的公司, 是否有淡季不淡, 旺季更旺的情況
  • 漲很多的股票要留意 EPS 較上季是否有大幅衰退的情況
  • 如果EPS衰退,要觀察同業是不是有一樣的狀況
  • 要留意增資減資和公司債對股本及EPS的影響
成長能力-近20季
加權平均股數 QoQ YoYEPS QoQ YoY本業EPS QoQ YoY累計EPS QoQ YoY營收 QoQ YoY毛利率(%) QoQ YoY營業利益 QoQ YoY稅後淨利 QoQ YoY稅前淨利率(%) QoQ YoY稅後淨利率(%) QoQ YoY兩季平均(YOY)營收成長率(%)兩季平均(YOY)EPS成長率(%)兩季平均(YOY)本業EPS成長率(%)
23Q4 (20)730.00.0-0.73-160.83-223.73-0.84-186.6-436.0-0.06-109.09-101.64.76-49.68-35.2418.07-20.29-21.57-0.7-188.61-300.0-0.53-160.23-223.26-13.09-229.09-262.81-11.13-220.06-289.2948.98298.1540.32
23Q3 (19)730.00.01.20757.14-2.440.97267.2414.120.66222.22-79.189.46147.644.5322.6733.43-0.440.79307.89-7.060.88780.0-2.2210.14170.4-18.949.27247.19-6.8379.99438.87146.91
23Q2 (18)730.00.00.14120.59-84.78-0.5826.58-179.45-0.5420.59-127.843.8212.35-54.8516.9916.53-23.05-0.3834.48-152.050.1120.0-85.073.75125.61-63.72.67118.3-66.46-20.70-47.33-194.71
23Q1 (17)730.00.0-0.68-215.25-166.67-0.79-416.0-192.94-0.68-118.09-166.673.4-53.74-61.9714.58-36.72-35.43-0.58-265.71-171.6-0.5-216.28-167.57-14.64-282.09-240.36-14.59-348.13-275.57-36.26-133.64-243.30
22Q4 (16)730.0-1.350.59-52.03-38.540.25-70.59-66.673.7618.61-20.347.35-18.78-25.8323.041.193.180.35-58.82-49.280.43-52.22-39.448.04-35.73-6.515.88-40.9-17.76-5.91-9.16-27.08
22Q3 (15)730.00.01.2333.7-27.220.8516.44-46.543.1763.4-16.589.056.97-15.8922.773.13-11.40.8516.44-42.570.934.33-26.8312.5121.1-13.319.9525.0-13.250.8011.951.16
22Q2 (14)730.00.00.92-9.8-10.680.73-14.12-31.781.9490.2-8.068.46-5.377.6322.08-2.21-16.080.73-9.88-17.050.67-9.46-11.8410.33-0.96-6.527.96-4.21-17.34-7.58-1.78-0.39
22Q1 (13)73-1.35-2.671.026.25-5.560.8513.33-12.371.02-78.39-5.568.94-9.7917.9422.581.12-18.860.8117.39-11.960.744.23-7.510.4321.28-21.648.3116.22-21.46-8.84-18.48-19.75
21Q4 (12)741.37-1.330.96-43.211.630.75-52.8325.04.7224.2147.969.91-7.92.9122.33-13.11-6.450.69-53.3815.00.71-42.2810.948.60-40.44.127.15-37.667.214.5010.44-2.11
21Q3 (11)730.0-2.671.6964.08-1.171.5948.616.913.8080.0963.7910.7636.9-3.5825.70-2.32-0.851.4868.1812.121.2361.84-3.9114.4330.590.2111.4719.110.2620.2929.7229.46
21Q2 (10)73-2.672.821.03-4.63119.151.0710.31256.672.1195.37229.697.863.6928.0126.31-5.4610.130.88-4.35151.430.76-5.0130.311.05-16.9846.949.63-8.9878.0-8.8010.4735.99
21Q1 (9)750.05.631.0825.58535.290.9761.67781.821.08-66.14535.297.58-21.2942.4827.8316.5934.70.9253.33666.670.825.0566.6713.3161.14319.8710.5858.62356.03-17.50-12.072.89
20Q4 (8)750.05.630.86-49.71258.330.60-55.88306.93.1937.561.119.63-13.7154.0823.87-7.9138.460.6-54.55452.940.64-50.0276.478.26-42.64148.86.67-41.7141.6734.03107.06148.72
20Q3 (7)755.635.631.71263.83205.361.36353.33183.332.32262.533.3311.1681.7690.4425.928.51.851.32277.14180.851.28287.88220.014.4091.4962.1611.44111.4669.2348.59220.15263.03
20Q2 (6)710.020.340.47176.47-11.320.30172.73-16.670.64276.47-54.936.1415.41-0.8123.8915.6310.240.35191.670.00.33175.03.127.52137.2212.745.41133.196.290.2673.65155.33
20Q1 (5)710.020.340.17-29.17-80.680.11137.93-81.360.17-91.41-80.685.32-14.88-6.520.6619.84-16.050.12170.59-78.950.12-29.41-76.923.17-4.52-72.392.32-15.94-74.76--0.00
19Q4 (4)710.00.00.24-57.140.0-0.29-160.420.01.9813.790.06.256.660.017.24-32.260.0-0.17-136.170.00.17-57.50.03.32-62.610.02.76-59.170.0--0.00
19Q3 (3)7120.340.00.565.660.00.4833.330.01.7422.540.05.86-5.330.025.4517.440.00.4734.290.00.425.00.08.8833.130.06.7632.810.0--0.00
19Q2 (2)590.00.00.53-39.770.00.36-38.980.01.4261.360.06.198.790.021.67-11.950.00.35-38.60.00.32-38.460.06.67-41.90.05.09-44.610.0--0.00
19Q1 (1)590.00.00.880.00.00.590.00.00.880.00.05.690.00.024.610.00.00.570.00.00.520.00.011.480.00.09.190.00.0--0.00
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/31.868.3874.564.5834.764.58N/A相較去年同期客戶庫存水位高減少拉貨,今年回穩客戶正常拉貨所致。
2024/21.7171.113.172.7216.574.32N/A-
2024/11.0-37.649.921.049.924.06N/A-
2023/121.6110.82-24.6821.44-36.564.760.88-
2023/111.45-15.08-42.5419.83-37.366.310.67-
2023/101.71-45.94-36.7418.39-36.918.140.52-
2023/93.16-3.512.4116.68-36.939.460.52-
2023/83.277.8-0.8613.52-42.127.480.66-
2023/73.04158.9513.9710.25-48.915.040.98-
2023/61.1740.47-62.197.21-58.533.821.7配合客戶調節市場存貨調整出貨、排運時程,致營收下滑。
2023/50.83-53.97-69.816.04-57.743.711.75配合客戶去化市場庫存及年度機種切換,調節出貨致營收下滑
2023/41.8170.28-30.155.21-54.854.541.43配合客戶需求去化市場庫存,調節出貨致營收表現較前年下滑
2023/31.06-35.94-74.423.4-62.023.41.73配合客戶需求去化市場庫存,調節出貨致營收表現較前期及同期下滑
2023/21.66148.66-14.812.33-51.24.461.32去年初市場需求強勁,全球通膨衝擊今年市場需求相對趨緩,致出貨量減少營收下滑。
2023/10.67-68.65-76.340.67-76.345.321.1去年初市場需求強勁,因逢國內春節假期,生產與交運天數減少,全球通膨衝擊今年1月市場需求相對趨緩,致出貨量減少營收下滑。
2022/122.13-15.45-44.4733.8-6.47.350.68-
2022/112.52-6.51-21.7331.67-1.878.30.61-
2022/102.7-12.48-5.1629.140.339.080.55-
2022/93.08-6.6-29.2326.450.929.050.69-
2022/83.323.94-5.6223.366.949.060.69-
2022/72.66-14.1-8.3820.069.348.530.73-
2022/63.112.1717.6917.412.678.460.66-
2022/52.766.47-6.2514.311.649.520.59-
2022/42.6-37.6414.0311.5416.998.710.65-
2022/34.16113.3536.948.9417.888.940.53-
2022/21.95-30.933.184.785.138.620.55-
2022/12.83-26.426.522.836.529.890.48-
2021/123.8419.1614.2336.1111.949.910.45-
2021/113.2213.27-4.4332.2711.6810.420.43-
2021/102.84-34.69-1.7829.0513.8110.70.42-
2021/94.3624.55-19.0226.215.810.760.44-
2021/83.520.32-5.0621.8526.679.040.53-
2021/72.9110.3438.4818.3535.298.490.56-
2021/62.63-10.6487.9215.4434.77.860.62去年同期受全球疫情影響客戶拉貨銳減,本期客戶拉貨回穩至同期營收上漲幅較大。
2021/52.9529.5137.9712.8127.298.260.59-
2021/42.28-25.12-12.569.8624.417.210.68-
2021/33.0460.7548.537.5842.57.580.61-
2021/21.89-28.76.374.5438.737.90.59-
2021/12.65-21.177.162.6577.169.390.5外銷客戶需求仍佳帶動下營收相較去年同期成長
2020/123.36-0.3196.8132.2634.449.630.37外銷客戶追單客戶備貨需求訂單消化不及加上國內電動機車銷售持續暢旺所致
2020/113.3716.41135.0728.8929.6611.650.31外銷客戶追單客戶備貨需求訂單消化不及加上國內電動機車銷售持續暢旺所致
2020/102.9-46.15-6.6825.5222.4111.960.3-
2020/95.3846.02161.4922.6327.511.160.411.外銷市場求需持續提升加上Q4歐美節慶客戶備貨致客戶追加拉貨。2.內銷推出新款機車產品致消費者購買力提升
2020/83.6875.5254.4917.259.937.190.641.外銷應是消費者捨去室內運動走出室外沙灘車等需求增加,致客戶追加拉貨。2.內銷推出新款電動機車產品致消費者購買力提升
2020/72.149.7347.5913.561.945.640.81-
2020/61.4-34.3927.1511.46-3.516.140.85-
2020/52.14-17.92-7.6910.06-6.656.790.77-
2020/42.627.19-6.277.92-6.366.430.81-
2020/32.0515.138.325.32-6.415.320.8-
2020/21.7818.7542.13.27-13.754.980.85-
2020/11.5-12.35-41.21.5-41.24.640.91-
2019/121.7119.07172.9623.99-7.696.250.42相較去年同期營收顯著成長主要為國內電動機車需求增加所致
2019/111.43-53.78-28.022.28-12.156.60.4-
2019/103.150.8827.4120.85-10.87.550.35-
2019/92.06-13.73-50.9917.74-15.255.860.64因外銷客戶已提前備貨致本月減少拉貨力度;且配合電車上市調整產線出貨下降
2019/82.3867.69-32.3615.69-6.294.910.76-
2019/71.4228.99-59.0413.30.664.840.77客戶集中於上半年提前出貨,客戶消化庫存以至本月營收表現較去年同期衰退
2019/61.1-52.37-41.4211.8821.946.190.51-
2019/52.31-16.65-4.7910.7837.120.0N/A-
2019/42.7847.048.298.4655.890.0N/A工作天數較前期增加,且配合客戶需求提前排產出貨,以致營收表現較前期及同期成長
成長能力-近10年
加權平均股數 YoYEPS YoY本業EPS YoY營收 YoY毛利率(%) YoY營業利益 YoY稅前淨利 YoY稅後淨利 YoY
2023 (10)730.0-0.060-1.23021.44-36.5719.36-14.34-0.870-0.020-0.050
2022 (9)73-1.353.76-20.342.68-38.6733.8-6.422.60-10.852.74-30.983.53-17.522.75-21.43
2021 (8)74-1.334.7248.434.3783.6136.1111.9325.355.413.9766.114.2841.253.547.06
2020 (7)755.633.1860.612.38108.7732.2634.4724.058.632.3997.523.0369.272.3868.79
2019 (6)7118.331.98-44.691.14-48.8823.99-7.722.14-9.821.21-46.931.79-35.841.41-34.42
2018 (5)60-3.233.5849.792.2316.1525.996.9524.550.72.2829.552.7952.462.1546.26
2017 (4)6219.232.39-49.681.92-18.6424.3-3.1924.38-1.651.76-19.271.83-37.541.47-40.24
2016 (3)5215.564.75-30.452.36-34.0825.1-9.2224.79-10.342.18-30.132.93-18.382.46-20.13
2015 (2)450.06.83355.333.58630.6127.6514.5927.6515.883.12380.03.59273.963.08359.7
2014 (1)4515.381.50-50.330.49-46.7424.1313.0223.8600.65-27.780.96-31.910.67-43.22

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