玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/44.84-38.8468.5626.71204.9918.54N/A客戶銷售狀況好增加採購量
2024/37.9136.39261.2921.87271.4921.870.27客戶銷售狀況好增加採購量
2024/25.8-28.94295.4613.96277.5322.520.27客戶銷售狀況好增加採購量
2024/18.16-4.69265.748.16265.7427.010.22客戶銷售狀況好增加採購量
2023/128.56-16.73141.2167.0847.4627.620.27客戶銷售狀況好增加採購量
2023/1110.2917.31220.4758.5239.5227.020.27客戶銷售狀況好增加採購量
2023/108.7710.01296.6848.2424.5326.290.28客戶銷售狀況好增加採購量
2023/97.97-16.56156.439.478.0623.360.34客戶銷售狀況好增加採購量
2023/89.5563.52127.5831.5-5.7320.00.39客戶庫存管理增加採購量
2023/75.8426.8270.3621.95-24.8813.190.6客戶庫存管理增加採購量
2023/64.667.6229.1816.11-37.5410.220.55客戶庫存管理增加採購量
2023/52.75-4.2611.611.5-48.247.810.71客戶庫存管理減少採購量
2023/42.8731.07-16.398.76-55.696.520.86客戶庫存管理減少採購量
2023/32.1949.28-41.515.89-63.955.890.97客戶庫存管理減少採購量
2023/21.47-34.28-62.913.7-70.627.250.79客戶庫存管理減少採購量
2023/12.23-37.14-74.152.23-74.158.990.64客戶庫存管理減少採購量
2022/123.5510.61-76.6245.49-75.238.970.65客戶庫存管理減少採購量
2022/113.2145.21-80.5441.94-75.18.530.68客戶庫存管理減少採購量
2022/102.21-28.88-88.4838.73-74.519.510.61客戶庫存管理減少採購量
2022/93.11-25.93-77.2436.52-72.4910.730.95客戶庫存管理減少採購量
2022/84.222.41-74.4233.42-71.9511.190.91客戶庫存管理減少採購量
2022/73.43-3.83-72.5729.22-71.559.451.08客戶庫存管理減少採購量
2022/63.5644.81-82.325.79-71.419.461.33客戶庫存管理減少採購量
2022/52.46-28.27-83.5622.23-68.289.641.31客戶庫存管理減少採購量
2022/43.43-8.31-76.6719.76-64.1311.131.13客戶庫存管理減少採購量
2022/33.74-5.33-71.2516.33-59.5616.330.81客戶庫存管理減少採購量
2022/23.95-54.2-65.7812.59-53.9927.780.48客戶庫存管理減少採購量
2022/18.64-43.14-45.378.64-45.3740.320.33-
2021/1215.19-7.9-9.14183.6761.4750.870.39客戶銷售狀況好增加採購量
2021/1116.49-14.0511.39168.4873.6449.340.4客戶銷售狀況好增加採購量
2021/1019.1940.4940.34151.9984.8549.260.4客戶銷售狀況好增加採購量
2021/913.66-16.771.44132.893.7342.570.5客戶銷售狀況好增加採購量
2021/816.4131.2945.56119.14116.2949.060.43客戶銷售狀況好增加採購量
2021/712.5-37.9615.32102.73134.4947.620.45客戶銷售狀況好增加採購量
2021/620.1534.55172.0390.23173.6749.840.39客戶銷售狀況好增加採購量
2021/514.981.76132.8370.08174.1542.720.45客戶銷售狀況好增加採購量
2021/414.7212.98197.5855.1188.0439.30.49客戶銷售狀況好增加採購量
2021/313.0212.71186.7440.39184.7140.390.45客戶銷售狀況好增加採購量
2021/211.56-26.9150.6227.36183.7644.080.41客戶銷售狀況好增加採購量
2021/115.81-5.44214.1215.81214.1247.330.38客戶銷售狀況好增加採購量
2020/1216.7212.92196.79113.7443.9445.20.24客戶銷售狀況好增加採購量
2020/1114.818.28131.097.0232.2141.940.26客戶銷售狀況好增加採購量
2020/1013.671.5552.4382.2222.7538.410.29客戶銷售狀況好增加採購量
2020/913.4619.4164.3768.5518.1635.580.27客戶銷售狀況好增加採購量
2020/811.274.0154.6155.0810.5729.520.32客戶銷售狀況好增加採購量
2020/710.8446.3263.4643.813.0124.680.38客戶銷售狀況好增加採購量
2020/67.4115.1675.8132.97-8.1418.780.39客戶銷售狀況好增加採購量
2020/56.4330.0622.4625.56-19.3115.920.45-
2020/44.948.86-22.0419.13-27.6114.10.51-
2020/34.54-1.48-21.5914.19-29.3714.190.37-
2020/24.61-8.3813.089.64-32.5215.280.34-
2020/15.03-10.66-50.735.03-50.7317.070.31去年產品上市,今年穩定出貨
2019/125.63-12.1-38.2879.0227.7421.010.3-
2019/116.41-28.54-33.3673.3939.1723.570.27-
2019/108.979.5114.8666.9855.3624.450.26客戶銷售狀況好增加採購量
2019/98.1912.3243.0758.0164.3122.110.32客戶銷售狀況好增加採購量
2019/87.299.9735.4749.8268.4318.140.39客戶銷售狀況好增加採購量
2019/76.6357.3778.6742.5275.7616.10.44客戶銷售狀況好增加採購量
2019/64.21-19.7815.9635.8975.230.0N/A客戶銷售狀況好增加採購量
2019/55.25-17.264.5231.6888.010.0N/A客戶銷售狀況好增加採購量
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
存貨銷售比
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/18.162023/12.232022/18.642021/115.812020/15.03
2024/25.82023/21.472022/23.952021/211.562020/24.61
2024/37.912023/32.192022/33.742021/313.022020/34.54
2024/44.842023/42.872022/43.432021/414.722020/44.94
N/AN/A2023/52.752022/52.462021/514.982020/56.43
N/AN/A2023/64.62022/63.562021/620.152020/67.41
N/AN/A2023/75.842022/73.432021/712.52020/710.84
N/AN/A2023/89.552022/84.22021/816.412020/811.27
N/AN/A2023/97.972022/93.112021/913.662020/913.46
N/AN/A2023/108.772022/102.212021/1019.192020/1013.67
N/AN/A2023/1110.292022/113.212021/1116.492020/1114.81
N/AN/A2023/128.562022/123.552021/1215.192020/1216.72
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 19.34%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
24Q1 (20)3.51475.41777.5
23Q4 (19)0.61-12.8645.24
23Q3 (18)0.7-5.4159.09
23Q2 (17)0.7485.0-86.37
23Q1 (16)0.4-4.76-92.55
22Q4 (15)0.42-4.55-92.32
22Q3 (14)0.44-91.97.32
22Q2 (13)5.431.121008.16
22Q1 (12)5.37-1.831351.35
21Q4 (11)5.471234.151664.52
21Q3 (10)0.41-16.337.89
21Q2 (9)0.4932.4340.0
21Q1 (8)0.3719.3537.04
20Q4 (7)0.31-18.4219.23
20Q3 (6)0.388.572.7
20Q2 (5)0.3529.630.0
20Q1 (4)0.273.850.0
19Q4 (3)0.26-29.730.0
19Q3 (2)0.375.710.0
19Q2 (1)0.350.00.0

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