玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/30.89-14.22-8.212.9123.922.91N/A-
2024/21.045.1374.342.0246.452.9N/A2024年全球通膨趨緩客戶回補庫存,另我司積極擴展新客訂單逐漸增加,致2024年2月合併營收較2023年同期相比增加74%。
2024/10.9912.6825.370.9925.373.04N/A-
2023/120.87-25.876.9211.56-29.963.471.13-
2023/111.18-16.91-5.2710.69-31.893.891.01-
2023/101.4210.03-13.669.51-34.183.751.05-
2023/91.2924.54-37.318.09-36.823.231.29-
2023/81.0414.13-41.046.8-36.722.821.48-
2023/70.913.47-39.465.76-35.882.741.52-
2023/60.88-7.98-41.914.85-35.162.511.38-
2023/50.9541.11-26.073.98-33.462.61.33-
2023/40.68-30.21-33.643.02-35.492.241.54-
2023/30.9762.92-23.432.35-36.02.351.44受全球通膨及終端輕奢飾品需求疲軟,客戶2022年Q3轉趨保守,致我司3月份合併營收較去年同期下滑36%,預估訂單於Q2起將緩步回溫。
2023/20.59-24.39-43.131.38-42.612.21.540
2023/10.79-3.89-42.210.79-42.212.851.19-
2022/120.82-34.33-37.0716.51-20.943.710.880
2022/111.25-24.26-33.715.69-19.874.950.66-
2022/101.64-20.1-35.1814.45-18.45.460.6-
2022/92.0617.13-9.0312.8-15.595.310.68-
2022/81.7617.190.8210.74-16.744.770.76-
2022/71.5-0.71-28.58.99-19.494.30.85-
2022/61.5117.11-7.417.49-17.43.820.98-
2022/51.2926.64-18.035.98-19.63.571.05-
2022/41.02-19.46-47.14.69-20.023.331.13-
2022/31.2620.99-3.413.67-6.773.670.92-
2022/21.04-23.17-15.442.4-8.443.70.91-
2022/11.364.66-2.231.36-2.234.540.74-
2021/121.3-30.8239.2820.8818.435.710.65-
2021/111.88-25.9511.6219.5817.266.680.56-
2021/102.5412.1217.1917.717.896.540.57-
2021/92.2629.827.6515.1718.016.10.8-
2021/81.74-16.9-2.2812.920.045.470.89-
2021/72.128.5794.811.1624.485.30.92我司產業進入旺季,且全渠道客戶銷況持續增長,致7月份營收較去年同期大增。
2021/61.633.6878.369.0614.895.130.886月份起我司產業逐步轉旺,全渠道客戶銷況亦持續增長,且在疫情影響全球物流的考量下提前下單,致6月份營收較去年同期大增。
2021/51.57-18.27100.717.436.574.810.945月份為我司產業傳統淡季,在疫情影響下全渠道客戶銷況持續增並提前下單,致我司5月份營收較去年同期大增100.72%。
2021/41.9247.0571.575.86-5.344.471.012020Q1主要客戶存貨調整致淡季不淡,而4月起為產業淡季,2021Q1因疫情致多渠道客戶訂單量成長,我司4月營收較去年同期大增71.57%
2021/31.315.92-8.773.94-22.363.941.04-
2021/21.24-11.17-22.992.63-27.733.561.15-
2021/11.3949.11-31.471.39-31.474.011.02-
2020/120.93-44.55-43.0117.63-3.084.780.72-
2020/111.68-22.26-40.2616.70.865.950.58-
2020/102.162.99-11.5115.029.36.050.57-
2020/92.117.846.8112.8513.814.960.7-
2020/81.7865.650.9210.7515.283.770.92-
2020/71.0817.7312.58.9718.642.771.26-
2020/60.9116.6741.497.8919.532.821.04-
2020/50.78-30.14-22.686.9817.153.340.88-
2020/41.12-21.841.466.1925.324.160.7-
2020/31.43-10.5856.965.0722.235.070.57去年因客戶需求減緩,縮減外包金工及電鍍訂單
2020/21.6-20.9613.073.6312.425.270.55-
2020/12.0324.0211.912.0311.916.480.45-
2019/121.64-41.887.5318.19-37.976.90.43-
2019/112.8215.1315.8916.56-40.467.230.41-
2019/102.4524.329.5213.74-45.866.180.48-
2019/91.9711.35-39.6511.29-51.214.690.7主要客戶產品製程改變,OEM加工量減少,鍍層減半影響營收。
2019/81.7784.66-49.979.32-53.13.370.97主要大客戶金工OEM加工量減少,客戶產品鍍層減半也影響電鍍營收
2019/70.9648.06-56.597.56-53.782.621.25主要大客戶金工OEM加工量減少,大客戶產品鍍層減半也影響電鍍營收
2019/60.65-36.24-72.686.6-53.342.451.12主要大客戶調整庫存,導致鍍金件訂單減少
2019/51.0127.81-65.125.95-49.460.0N/A主要大客戶OEM代工訂單縮減
2019/40.79-13.24-50.954.94-44.330.0N/A主要客戶大幅縮減外包金工及電鍍訂單
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
存貨銷售比
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/10.992023/10.792022/11.362021/11.392020/12.03
2024/21.042023/20.592022/21.042021/21.242020/21.6
2024/30.892023/30.972022/31.262021/31.312020/31.43
N/AN/A2023/40.682022/41.022021/41.922020/41.12
N/AN/A2023/50.952022/51.292021/51.572020/50.78
N/AN/A2023/60.882022/61.512021/61.632020/60.91
N/AN/A2023/70.912022/71.52021/72.12020/71.08
N/AN/A2023/81.042022/81.762021/81.742020/81.78
N/AN/A2023/91.292022/92.062021/92.262020/92.1
N/AN/A2023/101.422022/101.642021/102.542020/102.16
N/AN/A2023/111.182022/111.252021/111.882020/111.68
N/AN/A2023/120.872022/120.822021/121.32020/120.93
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 0.26%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
23Q4 (20)0.01-90.91-50.0
23Q3 (19)0.11450.00
23Q2 (18)0.02-66.67100.0
23Q1 (17)0.06200.0100.0
22Q4 (16)0.0200.0

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