玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/32.2484.94-26.875.9-9.35.9N/A-
2024/21.21-50.59-37.143.666.325.79N/A-
2024/12.4515.3561.52.4561.57.32N/A主要係去年一月為農曆春節期間,客戶端收貨時間縮短, 營收基期較低所致
2023/122.12-22.59-12.6526.51-8.367.070.36-
2023/112.7524.6618.524.38-7.977.140.35-
2023/102.20.29-12.8821.64-10.57.00.36-
2023/92.2-15.54-22.3519.43-10.226.890.41-
2023/82.624.361.5717.24-8.46.530.43-
2023/72.0913.52-4.1814.64-9.975.890.47-
2023/61.84-6.1-6.312.55-10.876.040.39-
2023/51.96-12.36-7.7110.71-11.617.260.33-
2023/42.24-26.9422.278.75-12.447.230.33-
2023/33.0658.98-1.966.51-20.236.510.49-
2023/21.9326.94-2.193.44-31.575.880.54-
2023/11.52-37.6-50.461.52-50.466.270.51本月較去年同期收入減少達50.47%,主要係因今年農曆春節落在1月,工作天數較少所致
2022/122.435.01-29.7228.93-25.277.280.49-
2022/112.32-8.36-43.2726.49-24.837.670.46-
2022/102.53-10.6-27.2124.18-22.427.920.45-
2022/92.8310.49-21.521.65-21.827.570.54-
2022/82.5617.3-10.0818.82-21.866.710.61-
2022/72.1811.0-19.3516.26-23.446.270.66-
2022/61.97-7.51-31.0114.08-24.045.920.69-
2022/52.1316.11-36.412.11-22.777.080.58-
2022/41.83-41.42-42.39.99-19.086.920.59-
2022/33.1258.61-1.428.16-11.058.160.54-
2022/21.97-35.7-8.275.03-16.148.50.52-
2022/13.06-11.48-20.523.06-20.5210.610.42-
2021/123.46-15.24-11.3438.7116.9311.020.42-
2021/114.0817.584.7535.2520.7111.160.42-
2021/103.47-3.591.6331.1623.179.920.47-
2021/93.626.566.827.6926.539.150.46-
2021/82.855.2-4.524.0930.128.40.5-
2021/72.71-5.0312.7521.2436.778.90.47-
2021/62.85-14.7546.4918.5441.169.360.47-
2021/53.345.3541.715.6940.239.680.46-
2021/43.170.0714.7812.3439.848.490.52-
2021/33.1747.590.69.1751.269.170.42主係109年受新冠肺炎疫情影響,比較基期較低所致
2021/22.15-44.2976.066.0106.049.910.39主係109年二月受新冠肺炎疫情影響,比較基期較低所致
2021/13.86-1.25127.633.86127.6311.660.33主要係因109年一月為農曆春節期間,比較基期較低及110年1月電子產品需求較強所致
2020/123.90.1426.9833.1-23.7311.220.3-
2020/113.914.0925.0729.2-27.610.690.31-
2020/103.421.33.3325.3-32.019.770.34-
2020/93.3713.1513.1221.88-35.468.750.42-
2020/82.9824.22-17.7318.51-40.147.330.5-
2020/72.423.39-32.0715.53-43.116.70.55-
2020/61.94-17.54-45.213.13-44.767.070.38-
2020/52.36-14.65-40.2511.19-44.688.270.32-
2020/42.76-12.28-33.178.83-45.757.130.38-
2020/33.15158.29-29.586.06-50.046.060.6主係因新冠肺炎疫情延宕以致本公司位於江蘇及廣東子公司春節復工延遲且僅部分產線投產,產能利用率大幅減少所致
2020/21.22-27.98-59.72.91-61.985.990.6主係因新冠肺炎疫情延宕以致本公司位於江蘇及廣東子公司春節復工延遲且僅部分產線投產,產能利用率大幅減少所致
2020/11.69-44.91-63.471.69-63.477.890.46本月營收較去年同期減少超過50%,係因今年農曆春節落於1月,且新冠狀病毒肺炎導致春節結束後無法如期復工,工作天數大幅減少所致
2019/123.07-1.36-37.9843.41-23.979.50.41-
2019/113.12-5.74-39.1540.33-22.649.410.42-
2019/103.3110.9-23.4937.21-20.849.910.4-
2019/92.98-17.71-30.7733.91-20.5710.140.46-
2019/83.622.57-23.1330.93-19.4310.710.44-
2019/73.53-0.46-19.627.3-18.9111.030.43-
2019/63.55-10.08-28.1423.77-18.811.630.42-
2019/53.95-4.54-37.5820.22-16.910.0N/A-
2019/44.14-7.57-11.0516.27-9.650.0N/A-
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
存貨銷售比
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/12.452023/11.522022/13.062021/13.862020/11.69
2024/21.212023/21.932022/21.972021/22.152020/21.22
2024/32.242023/33.062022/33.122021/33.172020/33.15
N/AN/A2023/42.242022/41.832021/43.172020/42.76
N/AN/A2023/51.962022/52.132021/53.342020/52.36
N/AN/A2023/61.842022/61.972021/62.852020/61.94
N/AN/A2023/72.092022/72.182021/72.712020/72.4
N/AN/A2023/82.62022/82.562021/82.852020/82.98
N/AN/A2023/92.22022/92.832021/93.62020/93.37
N/AN/A2023/102.22022/102.532021/103.472020/103.42
N/AN/A2023/112.752022/112.322021/114.082020/113.9
N/AN/A2023/122.122022/122.432021/123.462020/123.9
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 1.07%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
23Q4 (20)0.13-18.75-77.19
23Q3 (19)0.1614.29-65.96
23Q2 (18)0.14-50.0-66.67
23Q1 (17)0.28-50.8833.33
22Q4 (16)0.5721.2883.87
22Q3 (15)0.4711.9-46.59
22Q2 (14)0.42100.07.69
22Q1 (13)0.21-32.260.0
21Q4 (12)0.31-64.7772.22
21Q3 (11)0.88125.64225.93
21Q2 (10)0.3985.7150.0
21Q1 (9)0.2116.67-74.7
20Q4 (8)0.18-33.33-66.67
20Q3 (7)0.273.85-50.91
20Q2 (6)0.26-68.67-50.0
20Q1 (5)0.8353.756.6
19Q4 (4)0.54-1.820.0
19Q3 (3)0.555.770.0
19Q2 (2)0.52-1.890.0
19Q1 (1)0.530.00.0

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