玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/321.5658.4194.3548.6168.948.61N/A兩期變動達50%以上,主係本月及今年累積至本月認列完工交屋營建收入較去年同期增加所致
2024/213.611.1742.1527.0652.9553.33N/A兩期變動達50%以上,主係今年累積至本月認列完工交屋營建收入較去年同期增加所致
2024/113.45-48.8165.6813.4565.6849.95N/A兩期變動達50%以上,主係本月認列完工交屋營建收入較去年同期增加所致
2023/1226.27156.96112.39176.3720.7246.684.88兩期變動達50%以上,主係本月認列完工交屋營建收入較去年同期增加所致
2023/1110.220.38-9.51150.0912.2432.437.03-
2023/1010.19-15.22-6.27139.8714.2539.525.77-
2023/912.02-30.633.73129.6816.2554.214.09-
2023/817.32-30.3744.09117.6717.770.493.14-
2023/724.88-12.05120.68100.3414.0962.933.52兩期變動達50%以上,主係本月認列完工交屋營建收入較去年同期增加所致
2023/628.29189.88148.3875.47-1.5746.694.87兩期變動達50%以上,主係本月認列完工交屋營建收入較去年同期增加所致
2023/59.7612.942.0547.18-27.7329.497.71-
2023/48.64-22.09-10.7937.42-32.8429.37.76-
2023/311.0915.86-38.8228.78-37.4828.787.93-
2023/29.5717.92-21.0517.69-36.6130.067.59-
2023/18.12-34.38-48.568.12-48.5631.797.18-
2022/1212.379.47-54.97146.09-23.9434.546.38兩期變動達50%以上,主係本月認列完工交屋營建收入較去年同期減少所致
2022/1111.33.97-46.23133.72-18.7633.756.53-
2022/1010.87-6.17-39.14122.42-14.7434.476.4-
2022/911.58-3.63-47.05111.55-11.2734.886.13-
2022/812.026.63-27.8199.97-3.7334.686.17-
2022/711.27-1.02-37.1887.950.8532.226.64-
2022/611.3919.115.4276.6710.7130.646.76-
2022/59.56-1.27-3.865.299.9337.385.54-
2022/49.69-46.57-24.8655.7212.6939.945.19-
2022/318.1349.519.4946.0425.9446.044.32-
2022/212.13-23.1745.227.9139.5555.383.59-
2022/115.78-42.5535.5115.7835.5164.283.09-
2021/1227.4830.7229.47192.0845.7266.353.02-
2021/1121.0217.761.23164.648.8460.753.29兩期變動達50%以上,主係今年認列完工交屋營建收入較去年增加所致
2021/1017.86-18.384.12143.5947.1856.393.55-
2021/921.8831.3882.66125.7356.3656.483.65兩期變動達50%以上,主係今年認列完工交屋營建收入較去年增加所致
2021/816.65-7.2141.2103.8551.7644.474.63兩期變動達50%以上,主係今年認列完工交屋營建收入較去年增加所致
2021/717.9581.8885.0787.253.9637.755.45兩期變動達50%以上,主係去年營收受新冠疫情影響基期較低,今年度營收回復過往水準,及今年認列完工交屋營建收入較去年增加所致
2021/69.87-0.7316.8269.2547.5332.76.46-
2021/59.94-22.8832.7359.3954.2739.395.36兩期變動達50%以上,主係去年營收受新冠疫情影響基期較低,今年度營收回復過往水準,及今年認列完工交屋營建收入較去年增加所致
2021/412.89-22.1454.8449.4559.4837.85.59兩期變動達50%以上,主係去年營收受新冠疫情影響基期較低,本年度營收回復過往水準,及本月認列完工交屋營建收入較去年增加所致
2021/316.5698.2790.8636.5561.1836.555.16兩期變動達50%以上,主係去年營收受新冠疫情影響基期較低,本年度營收回復過往水準,及本月認列完工交屋營建收入較去年增加所致
2021/28.35-28.2950.8220.042.7941.224.582月份兩期變動達50.82%,主係去年同期營收受新冠疫情影響,基期較低,2月營收回復過往水準,故較去年同期成長。
2021/111.65-45.1137.5411.6537.5445.94.11-
2020/1221.2262.7971.8131.81-3.8951.413.5412月份兩期變動達71.80%,主係本月認列完工交屋之營建收入較去年同期增加所致
2020/1113.04-23.9928.36110.59-11.3842.164.32-
2020/1017.1543.1792.1997.56-14.940.924.4510月份兩期變動達92.20%,主係本月認列完工交屋之營建收入較去年同期增加所致
2020/911.981.5617.4880.41-23.9433.475.57-
2020/811.7921.6112.7968.43-28.3629.946.23-
2020/79.714.81-12.0656.64-33.4225.637.28-
2020/68.4512.78-35.3346.94-36.624.267.58-
2020/57.49-10.04-39.2738.49-36.8724.497.51-
2020/48.32-4.03-24.2931.0-36.2622.548.16-
2020/38.6756.67-45.6722.68-39.7622.687.83-
2020/25.54-34.6-42.614.0-35.4126.366.74-
2020/18.47-31.44-29.648.47-29.6430.975.74-
2019/1212.3521.63-16.32137.15-24.4131.435.63-
2019/1110.1513.8-54.08124.8-25.1229.276.0411月份兩期變動達54.09%,主係去年同期認列完工交屋之營建收入較本期增加所致
2019/108.92-12.48-31.66114.64-20.6929.575.98-
2019/910.2-2.48-60.11105.72-19.631.684.649月份兩期變動達60.12%,主係去年同期認列完工交屋之營建收入較本期增加所致
2019/810.46-5.18-50.0595.52-9.8234.544.258月份兩期變動達50.05%,主係去年同期認列完工交屋之營建收入較本期增加所致
2019/711.03-15.56-15.8385.070.0736.424.03-
2019/613.065.919.8274.042.9736.393.92-
2019/512.3312.150.6160.98-0.030.0N/A-
2019/411.0-31.14-18.3248.65-0.190.0N/A-
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
存貨銷售比
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/113.452023/18.122022/115.782021/111.652020/18.47
2024/213.612023/29.572022/212.132021/28.352020/25.54
2024/321.562023/311.092022/318.132021/316.562020/38.67
N/AN/A2023/48.642022/49.692021/412.892020/48.32
N/AN/A2023/59.762022/59.562021/59.942020/57.49
N/AN/A2023/628.292022/611.392021/69.872020/68.45
N/AN/A2023/724.882022/711.272021/717.952020/79.7
N/AN/A2023/817.322022/812.022021/816.652020/811.79
N/AN/A2023/912.022022/911.582021/921.882020/911.98
N/AN/A2023/1010.192022/1010.872021/1017.862020/1017.15
N/AN/A2023/1110.222022/1111.32021/1121.022020/1113.04
N/AN/A2023/1226.272022/1212.372021/1227.482020/1221.22
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 131.84%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
23Q4 (20)49.943.052.65
23Q3 (19)48.46-18.316.11
23Q2 (18)59.3213.0641.54
23Q1 (17)52.477.8537.97
22Q4 (16)48.656.5334.36
22Q3 (15)45.678.9721.27
22Q2 (14)41.9110.26.56
22Q1 (13)38.035.0330.33
21Q4 (12)36.21-3.8545.25
21Q3 (11)37.66-4.2562.54
21Q2 (10)39.3334.78107.66
21Q1 (9)29.1817.0575.47
20Q4 (8)24.937.679.48
20Q3 (7)23.1722.33102.53
20Q2 (6)18.9413.89207.97
20Q1 (5)16.6319.73168.23
19Q4 (4)13.8921.420.0
19Q3 (3)11.4486.020.0
19Q2 (2)6.15-0.810.0
19Q1 (1)6.20.00.0

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