玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/20.92-39.79-28.082.4621.484.67N/A-
2024/11.54-30.57107.661.54107.665.42N/A去年春節在1月中下旬,今年春節在2月中,故今年1月正常出貨。
2023/122.2131.9820.9817.74-3.65.660.26-
2023/111.68-5.36.6115.53-6.315.150.28-
2023/101.773.8422.5113.85-7.674.710.31-
2023/91.738.059.5812.08-10.884.420.34-
2023/81.23-16.44-21.4210.38-13.533.670.41-
2023/71.4854.973.29.15-12.343.980.38-
2023/60.95-38.34-52.017.67-14.824.140.35客戶要求延遲出貨的情況較多
2023/51.55-5.75-13.646.72-4.294.690.31-
2023/41.649.1724.935.17-1.084.430.33-
2023/31.516.884.743.53-9.823.530.46-
2023/21.2973.8665.122.03-18.263.850.42去年春節在2月初,今年春節在1月中下旬,今年1月未能出貨的部分延至2月出貨,以致本月營收增加百分比較高。
2023/10.74-59.55-56.470.74-56.474.140.39去年春節在2月初,今年春節在1月中下旬,加上大陸剛解封變數較多,1月能出貨的天數不多。
2022/121.8316.3-17.518.41-6.114.840.32-
2022/111.578.81-29.1616.58-4.664.570.33-
2022/101.44-7.112.715.01-1.084.570.33-
2022/91.56-1.01-29.2513.56-1.464.560.35-
2022/81.579.7512.9212.013.814.990.32-
2022/71.43-27.94-3.810.432.565.210.31-
2022/61.9910.9435.899.03.655.090.31-
2022/51.7936.351.227.02-2.864.540.35-
2022/41.31-8.46-28.535.23-4.193.530.45-
2022/31.4384.26-21.363.918.173.910.39-
2022/20.78-54.17256.582.4838.244.690.33去年春節在2月中旬,2月出貨受到春節假期及節前停運影響較大;今年春節在2月初,節前停運在1月份,2月出貨影響相對較小。
2022/11.7-23.347.951.77.956.130.25-
2021/122.22-0.1211.2819.616.165.840.23-
2021/112.2257.775.5617.395.545.820.23-
2021/101.41-36.01-27.3715.175.545.00.27-
2021/92.258.018.6813.7610.675.080.31-
2021/81.39-6.5-9.4611.5611.054.340.36-
2021/71.491.782.5610.1714.64.720.33-
2021/61.46-17.35-10.248.6916.965.070.29-
2021/51.77-3.7325.487.2224.65.430.27-
2021/41.840.72-3.315.4524.323.880.38-
2021/31.82735.5736.853.6245.443.620.4-
2021/20.22-86.1210.431.7955.383.780.39去年2月受到新冠肺炎疫情影響,大陸延長春節假期,假期結束後,又受到跨區移動管制因素影響,無法順利出貨,以致兩期差異較大。
2021/11.57-20.9764.671.5764.675.670.26去年1月適逢農曆春節假期,工作天數少所致
2020/121.99-5.252.5918.47-7.296.030.2-
2020/112.18.52-0.7216.48-8.366.060.2-
2020/101.94-4.2428.3614.37-9.385.50.22-
2020/92.0231.6324.412.44-13.355.010.27-
2020/81.545.91-15.3710.41-18.174.620.29-
2020/71.45-10.93-24.248.88-18.644.490.3-
2020/61.6315.54-5.897.43-17.454.940.29-
2020/51.41-25.82-23.975.8-20.24.640.31-
2020/41.942.5629.664.39-18.913.430.42-
2020/31.33574.31-17.512.49-36.962.490.66-
2020/20.2-79.31-75.181.15-50.473.090.53受疫情影響,本公司中國子公司2/10復工,另供應商及客戶復工程度不一,及各地物流管制,2月下旬始逐步恢復,致本月業績受影響。
2020/10.96-50.76-37.610.96-37.615.010.33-
2019/121.94-8.3121.2519.926.665.570.27-
2019/112.1240.3226.5417.985.295.250.28-
2019/101.51-7.222.7815.862.984.950.3-
2019/91.63-10.451.4314.351.265.360.31-
2019/81.82-5.184.2812.731.245.460.31-
2019/71.9210.638.8210.910.755.50.3-
2019/61.73-6.647.319.0-0.85.050.39-
2019/51.8526.4920.937.27-2.564.940.4-
2019/41.47-9.31-9.375.41-8.640.0N/A-
2019/31.62102.86-1.013.95-8.370.0N/A-
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
存貨銷售比
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/11.542023/10.742022/11.72021/11.572020/10.96
2024/20.922023/21.292022/20.782021/20.222020/20.2
N/AN/A2023/31.52022/31.432021/31.822020/31.33
N/AN/A2023/41.642022/41.312021/41.842020/41.9
N/AN/A2023/51.552022/51.792021/51.772020/51.41
N/AN/A2023/60.952022/61.992021/61.462020/61.63
N/AN/A2023/71.482022/71.432021/71.492020/71.45
N/AN/A2023/81.232022/81.572021/81.392020/81.54
N/AN/A2023/91.72022/91.562021/92.22020/92.02
N/AN/A2023/101.772022/101.442021/101.412020/101.94
N/AN/A2023/111.682022/111.572021/112.222020/112.1
N/AN/A2023/122.212022/121.832021/122.222020/121.99
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 18.11%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
23Q4 (20)0.67-28.729.84
23Q3 (19)0.94-1.0511.9
23Q2 (18)0.9543.940.0
23Q1 (17)0.668.2-40.54
22Q4 (16)0.61-27.38-33.7
22Q3 (15)0.84-11.58-12.5
22Q2 (14)0.95-14.41-8.65
22Q1 (13)1.1120.65-5.93
21Q4 (12)0.92-4.17-1.08
21Q3 (11)0.96-7.6920.0
21Q2 (10)1.04-11.8648.57
21Q1 (9)1.1826.8866.2
20Q4 (8)0.9316.2543.08
20Q3 (7)0.814.2919.4
20Q2 (6)0.7-1.41-10.26
20Q1 (5)0.719.23-33.64
19Q4 (4)0.65-2.990.0
19Q3 (3)0.67-14.10.0
19Q2 (2)0.78-27.10.0
19Q1 (1)1.070.00.0

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