玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/31.1345.9812.222.99.882.9N/A-
2024/20.77-23.02-18.691.778.452.53N/A-
2024/11.032.2645.71.045.72.61N/A-
2023/120.76-11.19-16.399.84-45.382.451.45-
2023/110.851.77-15.959.08-46.922.471.44-
2023/100.847.92-27.918.22-48.872.461.44市場庫存過多
2023/90.78-7.79-49.517.39-50.512.231.63市場庫存過多
2023/80.8437.3-37.296.61-50.622.211.64市場庫存過多
2023/70.61-18.27-65.15.77-52.112.291.58市場庫存過多
2023/60.75-18.89-60.195.15-49.892.511.55市場庫存過多
2023/50.9310.7-51.094.4-47.572.771.41市場庫存過多
2023/40.84-16.67-41.823.48-46.552.791.39-
2023/31.05.76-43.552.64-47.892.641.48-
2023/20.9537.94-40.451.64-50.242.541.54因客戶端受終端客戶資本支出減緩所致
2023/10.69-24.11-59.370.69-59.372.611.5因客戶端受終端客戶延後進貨所致
2022/120.91-10.73-35.6318.01-8.233.091.22-
2022/111.02-12.7-28.5517.1-6.113.721.01-
2022/101.16-24.4-29.8416.09-4.214.050.93-
2022/91.5414.51-9.5114.92-1.414.640.95-
2022/81.34-23.58-22.4413.38-0.384.990.88-
2022/71.76-6.79-6.6912.042.885.540.8-
2022/61.89-0.35-16.5910.284.715.220.88-
2022/51.8931.714.058.411.095.110.9-
2022/41.44-19.14-13.166.510.264.810.95-
2022/31.7811.565.995.0719.415.070.88-
2022/21.59-5.8752.53.2928.194.70.95自動化組件銷售業務因客戶新機種需求量增加所致
2022/11.6920.2211.471.6911.474.520.99-
2021/121.41-0.9-14.6519.6322.424.490.96-
2021/111.42-14.280.5118.2226.674.780.9-
2021/101.66-2.4936.7816.829.525.090.85-
2021/91.7-1.8458.3915.1428.785.320.72自動化組件銷售業務因客戶新機種及新客戶需求量增加所致。
2021/81.73-8.0640.9213.4425.85.880.65-
2021/71.88-16.6845.6211.723.835.810.66-
2021/62.2636.2646.089.8220.375.580.62-
2021/51.660.2725.447.5614.354.990.69-
2021/41.66-1.31-10.95.911.584.380.79-
2021/31.6860.524.554.2423.774.240.76-
2021/21.05-31.25.872.5640.74.210.76-
2021/11.52-7.9581.841.5281.844.580.7主係因109/01上班日較110/01少
2020/121.6516.722.1916.033.944.280.79-
2020/111.4116.641.1514.382.193.70.91-
2020/101.2112.9-8.212.972.33.520.96-
2020/91.07-12.67-25.5511.753.533.61.17-
2020/81.23-5.01.0410.687.764.071.04-
2020/71.29-16.42-13.129.458.74.171.01-
2020/61.5517.0133.598.1613.214.730.82-
2020/51.32-28.78-16.646.619.314.790.81-
2020/41.8615.8143.855.2918.554.450.87-
2020/31.662.5543.833.438.233.431.0-
2020/20.9918.167.081.82-11.133.171.08-
2020/10.84-38.14-26.010.84-26.013.580.95-
2019/121.35-3.385.4115.423.724.070.88-
2019/111.45.8530.7514.073.564.160.86-
2019/101.32-8.443.0312.671.243.980.9-
2019/91.4418.5337.811.351.034.150.98-
2019/81.22-18.32-5.139.91-2.733.871.05-
2019/71.4928.525.158.69-2.394.240.96-
2019/61.16-26.98-9.077.2-3.824.040.96-
2019/51.5922.8911.946.05-2.740.0N/A-
2019/41.2915.8-3.644.46-7.080.0N/A-
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
存貨銷售比
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/11.02023/10.692022/11.692021/11.522020/10.84
2024/20.772023/20.952022/21.592021/21.052020/20.99
2024/31.132023/31.02022/31.782021/31.682020/31.6
N/AN/A2023/40.842022/41.442021/41.662020/41.86
N/AN/A2023/50.932022/51.892021/51.662020/51.32
N/AN/A2023/60.752022/61.892021/62.262020/61.55
N/AN/A2023/70.612022/71.762021/71.882020/71.29
N/AN/A2023/80.842022/81.342021/81.732020/81.23
N/AN/A2023/90.782022/91.542021/91.72020/91.07
N/AN/A2023/100.842022/101.162021/101.662020/101.21
N/AN/A2023/110.852022/111.022021/111.422020/111.41
N/AN/A2023/120.762022/120.912021/121.412020/121.65
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 1.45%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
23Q4 (20)0.12200.0300.0
23Q3 (19)0.040.0-20.0
23Q2 (18)0.040.033.33
23Q1 (17)0.0433.33100.0
22Q4 (16)0.03-40.0-40.0
22Q3 (15)0.0566.6725.0
22Q2 (14)0.0350.0-40.0
22Q1 (13)0.02-60.0-66.67
21Q4 (12)0.0525.00.0
21Q3 (11)0.04-20.00.0
21Q2 (10)0.05-16.6725.0
21Q1 (9)0.0620.0-68.42
20Q4 (8)0.0525.0-16.67
20Q3 (7)0.040.0-20.0
20Q2 (6)0.04-78.95-33.33
20Q1 (5)0.19216.6790.0
19Q4 (4)0.0620.00.0
19Q3 (3)0.05-16.670.0
19Q2 (2)0.06-40.00.0
19Q1 (1)0.10.00.0

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