玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/30.2231.08-13.110.58-10.070.58N/A-
2024/20.17-13.78-6.810.36-8.120.67N/A-
2024/10.19-36.97-9.220.19-9.220.75N/A-
2023/120.3124.3134.272.7112.670.830.68主係因本年度組織重組,合併子公司營收所致。
2023/110.25-8.78239.782.39110.180.760.74主係因本年度組織重組,合併子公司營收所致。
2023/100.2711.3119.072.15101.340.740.76主係因本年度組織重組,合併子公司營收所致。
2023/90.247.53390.71.8899.010.690.91主係因本年度組織重組,合併子公司營收所致。
2023/80.233.0464.641.6382.810.581.08主係因本年度組織重組,合併子公司營收所致。
2023/70.22-68.61312.091.4186.120.421.5主係合併子公司營收併入所致。
2023/60.14111.7323.570.62-11.420.322.18-
2023/50.06-47.21-64.990.49-17.90.32.3本月增減百分比達50%以上,主係因新舊世代產品更迭中,且客戶舊世代產品需求下降所致。
2023/40.121.913.040.423.090.312.23-
2023/30.1260.480.540.33.10.31.39-
2023/20.07-31.64-15.320.184.850.311.34-
2023/10.11-17.3425.260.1125.260.311.34-
2022/120.1380.2814.021.2714.140.332.05-
2022/110.07-41.19-29.551.1414.150.252.72-
2022/100.12149.3223.781.0719.20.312.16-
2022/90.05-63.92-55.380.9418.620.243.08客戶新舊型號轉換,調節通路舖貨,要求延緩出貨,以致兩期變動較大
2022/80.14157.9271.380.8930.660.32.46上月(111/7)因客戶要求延緩至本月出貨,以致兩期變動較大。
2022/70.05-51.36-49.550.7625.250.352.14-
2022/60.11-40.0135.890.741.140.411.49-
2022/50.1855.39100.430.5942.160.421.46今年疫情影響趨緩,銷貨情形逐漸回穩,然,去年同期在疫情影響下,部分訂單延緩出貨,以致兩期變動較大。
2022/40.12-0.558.960.4125.840.321.89-
2022/30.1235.1539.770.2934.210.291.3-
2022/20.091.1235.360.1730.680.291.31-
2022/10.09-24.7626.260.0926.260.31.25-
2021/120.1211.3730.541.1114.440.321.13-
2021/110.13.34-24.211.012.840.311.15-
2021/100.1-10.14-2.820.8919.590.291.24-
2021/90.1138.638.440.7923.160.31.11-
2021/80.08-24.08-31.860.6820.990.271.24-
2021/70.1131.0120.610.634.910.281.19-
2021/60.08-11.52101.950.538.40.281.14因疫情影響,去年同期暫緩出貨,以致兩期變動較大。
2021/50.09-15.5278.790.4230.450.281.13因疫情影響,去年同期暫緩出貨,以致兩期變動較大。
2021/40.1127.54185.20.3321.280.261.24因疫情影響,去年本月暫緩出貨,以致兩期變動較大。
2021/30.0830.8952.340.22-5.60.221.01因疫情影響,國外延緩訂單,本月生產出貨。
2021/20.06-5.67-33.740.13-23.970.220.99-
2021/10.07-22.21-11.690.07-11.690.290.75-
2020/120.09-35.33-39.850.97-20.170.330.49-
2020/110.1432.5135.270.88-17.480.320.5-
2020/100.128.01-26.30.75-22.950.30.53-
2020/90.08-31.78-13.310.65-22.390.290.67-
2020/80.1234.38-16.90.56-23.530.250.77-
2020/70.09119.37-20.770.45-25.10.181.06-
2020/60.04-21.67-73.640.36-26.080.131.71因疫情影響,暫緩出貨
2020/50.0534.75-50.360.32-4.560.141.52因疫情影響,暫緩出貨
2020/40.04-31.86-42.140.2715.690.191.15-
2020/30.06-43.07-17.120.2338.390.230.61-
2020/20.125.7110.80.1875.710.320.44主係因新品項持續出貨所致
2020/10.08-47.0145.30.0845.30.320.43-
2019/120.1545.429.371.2236.970.390.39-
2019/110.1-27.8163.261.0741.860.330.45主係新品項持續出貨所致
2019/100.1450.58235.650.9739.960.370.4主係因新品項持續出貨所致
2019/90.09-34.61.320.8327.480.340.49-
2019/80.1428.1338.710.7431.750.40.42-
2019/70.11-27.0199.80.630.20.360.47主係新品項持續出貨所致
2019/60.1547.51102.330.4920.650.320.53主係新品項出貨所致
2019/50.157.04128.820.332.010.0N/A主係先前遞延產能陸續出貨所致
2019/40.07-2.496.540.23-18.070.0N/A主係先前遞延之產能陸續出貨所致。
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
存貨銷售比
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/10.192023/10.112022/10.092021/10.072020/10.08
2024/20.172023/20.072022/20.092021/20.062020/20.1
2024/30.222023/30.122022/30.122021/30.082020/30.06
N/AN/A2023/40.122022/40.122021/40.112020/40.04
N/AN/A2023/50.062022/50.182021/50.092020/50.05
N/AN/A2023/60.142022/60.112021/60.082020/60.04
N/AN/A2023/70.222022/70.052021/70.112020/70.09
N/AN/A2023/80.232022/80.142021/80.082020/80.12
N/AN/A2023/90.242022/90.052021/90.112020/90.08
N/AN/A2023/100.272022/100.122021/100.12020/100.1
N/AN/A2023/110.252022/110.072021/110.12020/110.14
N/AN/A2023/120.312022/120.132021/120.122020/120.09
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 2.07%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
23Q4 (20)0.06-33.33-40.0
23Q3 (19)0.0928.57-47.06
23Q2 (18)0.07-12.5-53.33
23Q1 (17)0.08-20.033.33
22Q4 (16)0.1-41.1866.67
22Q3 (15)0.1713.33325.0
22Q2 (14)0.15150.0200.0
22Q1 (13)0.060.050.0
21Q4 (12)0.0650.050.0
21Q3 (11)0.04-20.0-20.0
21Q2 (10)0.0525.0150.0
21Q1 (9)0.040.00
20Q4 (8)0.04-20.0100.0
20Q3 (7)0.05150.0400.0
20Q2 (6)0.020-33.33

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