玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/32.6231.12-4.147.195.87.19N/A-
2024/22.0-21.914.834.5612.516.49N/A-
2024/12.5633.1319.342.5619.346.96N/A-
2023/121.93-22.15-21.928.340.926.90.53-
2023/112.47-1.0414.8426.423.127.710.47-
2023/102.5-8.7114.3523.942.047.970.46-
2023/92.740.1849.9121.440.787.910.29-
2023/82.7312.0442.1318.71-3.837.290.32-
2023/72.4415.4335.0615.97-8.876.960.33-
2023/62.11-12.176.4113.53-13.926.740.43-
2023/52.418.43-7.4511.42-16.867.360.4-
2023/42.22-18.9652.639.01-19.056.870.43去年因上海封城影響;今已恢復正常營運
2023/32.7443.41-10.16.8-29.826.80.41-
2023/21.91-11.1-3.154.06-38.866.520.42-
2023/12.15-12.88-53.962.15-53.966.770.41主要原因為去年專案業績減少
2022/122.4714.47-19.0228.08-11.226.80.7-
2022/112.15-1.46-19.9825.62-10.396.170.77-
2022/102.1919.67-26.8923.46-9.45.930.8-
2022/91.83-5.01-31.7321.28-7.115.561.13-
2022/81.926.46-24.6319.45-3.865.711.1-
2022/71.81-9.04-32.0317.53-0.866.390.98-
2022/61.99-23.62-15.7915.724.646.040.85-
2022/52.678.8411.1213.748.457.10.72-
2022/41.45-52.27-49.3611.147.846.470.79上海封城影響
2022/33.0554.57.259.6829.879.680.26-
2022/21.97-57.73-10.036.6443.799.680.26-
2022/14.6753.2192.484.6792.4810.40.24疫情影響下, 大陸工廠鼓勵不回鄉過年, 工廠都在稼動; 提前拉貨情形使然
2021/123.0413.1226.8731.639.718.730.46-
2021/112.69-9.978.6428.598.158.360.48-
2021/102.9911.7527.0625.98.18.220.49-
2021/92.684.86-8.2722.916.047.880.34-
2021/82.55-3.9917.2520.238.287.570.35-
2021/72.6612.685.6717.687.097.350.36-
2021/62.360.780.1115.027.357.570.29-
2021/52.34-18.58.4212.678.818.050.27-
2021/42.871.08-9.3810.338.97.90.28-
2021/32.8429.5825.477.4618.087.460.17-
2021/22.19-9.5717.444.6213.957.020.18-
2021/12.420.9910.972.4210.977.30.17-
2020/122.4-3.123.5128.835.747.230.21-
2020/112.485.286.0126.435.957.750.19-
2020/102.35-19.324.5523.955.947.450.2-
2020/92.9234.0610.1721.66.097.610.14-
2020/82.18-13.47-16.3718.695.497.050.15-
2020/72.516.762.516.519.257.030.15-
2020/62.369.15-7.3513.9910.567.680.19-
2020/52.16-31.8920.7211.6415.067.590.19-
2020/43.1739.9644.929.4813.857.30.2-
2020/32.2621.284.486.312.796.310.24-
2020/21.87-14.5516.034.051.876.370.24-
2020/12.18-5.79-7.752.18-7.756.840.22-
2019/122.32-0.7810.8727.273.576.910.43-
2019/112.343.83-4.8124.952.947.230.41-
2019/102.25-14.99-9.5122.613.827.50.4-
2019/92.651.758.5820.365.547.70.4-
2019/82.66.064.4417.715.17.60.41-
2019/72.45-3.515.8415.115.216.780.45-
2019/62.5442.2333.6512.663.376.520.58-
2019/51.79-18.23-12.3610.12-2.190.0N/A-
2019/42.190.9123.068.330.30.0N/A-
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
存貨銷售比
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/12.562023/12.152022/14.672021/12.422020/12.18
2024/22.02023/21.912022/21.972021/22.192020/21.87
2024/32.622023/32.742022/33.052021/32.842020/32.26
N/AN/A2023/42.222022/41.452021/42.872020/43.17
N/AN/A2023/52.412022/52.62021/52.342020/52.16
N/AN/A2023/62.112022/61.992021/62.362020/62.36
N/AN/A2023/72.442022/71.812021/72.662020/72.51
N/AN/A2023/82.732022/81.922021/82.552020/82.18
N/AN/A2023/92.742022/91.832021/92.682020/92.92
N/AN/A2023/102.52022/102.192021/102.992020/102.35
N/AN/A2023/112.472022/112.152021/112.692020/112.48
N/AN/A2023/121.932022/122.472021/123.042020/122.4
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 1.87%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
23Q4 (20)0.10.0900.0
23Q3 (19)0.166.67233.33
23Q2 (18)0.06500.050.0
23Q1 (17)0.010.0-50.0
22Q4 (16)0.01-66.670.0
22Q3 (15)0.03-25.050.0
22Q2 (14)0.04100.0100.0
22Q1 (13)0.02100.0100.0
21Q4 (12)0.01-50.0-75.0
21Q3 (11)0.020.0100.0
21Q2 (10)0.02100.00
21Q1 (9)0.01-75.00
20Q4 (8)0.04300.00
20Q3 (7)0.0100

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