玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/30.05754.27-52.160.15-48.520.15N/A大環境影響及經濟不景氣
2024/20.01-94.35-80.00.11-46.670.36N/A因春節關係
2024/10.1-60.98-41.130.1-41.130.41N/A-
2023/120.26331.05231.250.93-45.870.320.59依客戶交期出貨致使本期較上期增加
2023/110.06545.69-74.60.67-58.940.141.35大環境影響及經濟不景氣
2023/100.01-87.29-93.490.61-56.330.131.49大環境影響及經濟不景氣
2023/90.0755.58-5.520.6-52.170.180.73大環境影響及經濟不景氣
2023/80.05-22.51-73.980.53-55.180.20.65大環境影響及經濟不景氣
2023/70.06-36.86-81.740.48-51.850.170.77大環境影響及經濟不景氣
2023/60.09607.61-53.210.42-37.370.131.11大環境影響及經濟不景氣
2023/50.01-26.61-88.30.33-30.60.131.06大環境影響及經濟不景氣
2023/40.02-81.8-80.50.32-12.230.150.95大環境影響及經濟不景氣
2023/30.1257.15-3.550.311.770.30.54-
2023/20.03-83.3810.190.221.60.270.58-
2023/10.17119.5323.720.1723.720.480.33-
2022/120.08-66.95-84.61.71-68.790.450.69因COVID-19病毒疫情關係
2022/110.2365.39-75.11.63-67.210.450.69因COVID-19病毒疫情關係
2022/100.1484.56-83.361.4-65.380.40.78因COVID-19病毒疫情關係
2022/90.08-57.16-88.981.26-60.620.580.62因COVID-19病毒疫情關係
2022/80.18-45.62-56.431.18-52.760.710.51因COVID-19病毒疫情關係
2022/70.3361.82-36.811.01-52.050.650.56因COVID-19病毒疫情關係
2022/60.276.85-50.630.68-57.060.411.27因COVID-19病毒疫情關係
2022/50.1122.35-72.920.47-59.320.311.67因COVID-19病毒疫情關係
2022/40.09-10.0-47.330.36-51.580.222.33因COVID-19病毒疫情關係
2022/30.1308.07-2.30.27-52.910.271.69因COVID-19病毒疫情關係
2022/20.03-81.34-78.010.16-64.660.660.68因COVID-19病毒疫情及春節關係
2022/10.14-72.67-60.140.14-60.141.570.29因春節長假關係
2021/120.5-46.5727.995.4841.492.280.2-
2021/110.9410.48178.224.9843.02.480.19依客戶交期出貨致使本期較去年同期增加
2021/100.8522.19100.944.0528.551.950.24依客戶交期出貨致使本期較去年同期增加
2021/90.6969.48102.633.217.351.621.12依客戶交期出貨致使本期較去年同期增加
2021/80.41-21.15-50.342.515.11.341.36因COVID-19病毒疫情關係
2021/70.5226.4258.952.134.41.351.35依客戶交期出貨致使本期出貨較去年同期增加
2021/60.41-3.060.661.5827.91.011.26依客戶交期出貨致使本期較去年同期增加
2021/50.42138.03168.381.1719.330.711.79依客戶交期出貨致使本期較去年同期增加
2021/40.1866.9310.850.74-9.330.43.17-
2021/30.11-8.15-60.410.57-14.240.571.2因COVID-19病毒疫情關係
2021/20.12-66.19542.190.4617.570.850.8因COVID-19病毒疫情及客戶限定交期出貨致使本期營收較去年同期增加
2021/10.34-12.24-7.870.34-7.871.070.64-
2020/120.3916.1360.33.88-36.621.150.5因COVID-19病毒疫情關係,原上半年訂單在下半年下單出貨致使營收增加
2020/110.34-20.2109.173.48-40.641.10.52因COVID-19病毒疫情關係,原上半年訂單在下半年下單出貨致使營收增加。
2020/100.4223.2238.743.15-44.871.590.36-
2020/90.34-58.46-30.662.73-49.571.490.36-
2020/80.82152.37166.562.38-51.471.410.38因COVID-19病毒疫情關係
2020/70.3327.79-18.31.56-66.110.740.73因COVID-19病毒疫情關係
2020/60.2662.03-49.521.23-70.660.570.77因COVID-19病毒疫情關係
2020/50.16-1.68-52.450.98-73.550.590.75因COVID-19病毒疫情關係
2020/40.16-40.38-55.750.82-75.630.450.98因COVID-19病毒疫情關係
2020/30.271389.81-37.420.66-78.030.660.67因季節性產品及客戶限定交期出貨致使本期累計營收較去年同期減少
2020/20.02-95.14-83.750.39-84.820.630.69因COVID-19病毒疫情關係
2020/10.3752.69-84.870.37-84.870.780.57因季節性產品及客戶限定交期出貨致使本期營收較去年同期減少
2019/120.2451.5548.626.12-21.220.710.89-
2019/110.16-47.07-58.375.87-22.730.960.66因新產品訂單仍在協商中,致使訂單數量減少,故營收下降。
2019/100.3-38.41-50.525.71-20.821.110.57大陸家電低價競爭,公司創造差異化產品,依客戶交期出貨致使本月營收較去年同期減少。
2019/90.4959.68-80.825.41-18.061.20.57因去年同期有客戶策略性銷售訂單而本期因景氣下滑,僅有常規性訂單,致使營收下降。
2019/80.31-22.65-30.774.9122.081.220.56-
2019/70.4-21.03-41.24.628.681.240.55-
2019/60.5152.623.214.245.081.20.7-
2019/50.33-8.520.623.753.610.0N/A依客戶交期出貨致使本年累計營收較去年同期增加
2019/40.36-15.67-15.923.3762.020.0N/A依客戶交期出貨致使本年累計營收較去年同期增加
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
存貨銷售比
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/10.12023/10.172022/10.142021/10.342020/10.37
2024/20.012023/20.032022/20.032021/20.122020/20.02
2024/30.052023/30.12022/30.12021/30.112020/30.27
N/AN/A2023/40.022022/40.092021/40.182020/40.16
N/AN/A2023/50.012022/50.112021/50.422020/50.16
N/AN/A2023/60.092022/60.22021/60.412020/60.26
N/AN/A2023/70.062022/70.332021/70.522020/70.33
N/AN/A2023/80.052022/80.182021/80.412020/80.82
N/AN/A2023/90.072022/90.082021/90.692020/90.34
N/AN/A2023/100.012022/100.142021/100.852020/100.42
N/AN/A2023/110.062022/110.232021/110.942020/110.34
N/AN/A2023/120.262022/120.082021/120.52020/120.39
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 3.13%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
23Q4 (20)0.15-11.760.0
23Q3 (19)0.170.088.89
23Q2 (18)0.1713.33142.86
23Q1 (17)0.150.087.5
22Q4 (16)0.1566.6787.5
22Q3 (15)0.0928.57-10.0
22Q2 (14)0.07-12.5-30.0
22Q1 (13)0.080.0-42.86
21Q4 (12)0.08-20.0-38.46
21Q3 (11)0.10.00.0
21Q2 (10)0.1-28.5742.86
21Q1 (9)0.147.6955.56
20Q4 (8)0.1330.00.0
20Q3 (7)0.142.86-23.08
20Q2 (6)0.07-22.22-65.0
20Q1 (5)0.09-30.77-52.63
19Q4 (4)0.130.00.0
19Q3 (3)0.13-35.00.0
19Q2 (2)0.25.260.0
19Q1 (1)0.190.00.0

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