玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/34.6956.2419.111.8327.3811.83N/A-
2024/23.0-27.2417.887.1333.4810.81N/A-
2024/14.1312.2747.74.1347.712.1N/A-
2023/123.68-14.3520.246.6-22.2312.020.68-
2023/114.296.153.9642.92-24.5113.650.6-
2023/104.05-23.83-8.9838.63-26.8415.130.54-
2023/95.31-7.9823.5234.58-28.3814.790.51-
2023/85.7756.042.8129.27-33.4513.160.57-
2023/73.70.41-26.9923.5-41.1710.80.7-
2023/63.698.06-48.9519.8-43.2310.510.78-
2023/53.41-0.15-51.9716.11-41.7410.770.76本期因市場需求疲軟以及客戶在 3C 和互聯健身庫存過剩,故與去年同期產生較大差異。
2023/43.42-13.34-27.9912.7-38.29.910.82-
2023/33.9454.64-39.459.29-41.269.290.95-
2023/22.55-8.83-37.95.34-42.548.41.04-
2023/12.8-8.63-46.22.8-46.29.990.88本期因遇過年期間,且大陸受疫情影響,客戶無法拉貨,致營收較去年同期減少
2022/123.06-25.92-42.9959.92-5.911.640.79-
2022/114.13-7.06-6.1756.86-2.4912.880.72-
2022/104.453.36-13.5852.8-2.0612.790.72-
2022/94.36.376.3448.29-0.9913.410.74-
2022/84.04-20.24-19.2543.99-1.6516.330.61-
2022/75.07-29.78-2.939.940.5619.390.51-
2022/67.221.6520.1334.881.0819.070.48-
2022/57.149.759.5627.66-2.9318.360.5本期因昆山解封,故營收較去年同期增加
2022/44.74-27.12-32.2720.55-14.515.360.59本期因新冠狀病毒疫情,大陸封城工廠停工,致4月營收較去年同期減少許多。
2022/36.5158.59-4.4615.81-7.1915.810.54-
2022/24.1-21.02-0.579.3-9.0114.670.58-
2022/15.2-3.18-14.745.2-14.7414.970.57-
2021/125.3721.91-20.263.6916.9714.910.59-
2021/114.4-14.39-27.5958.3222.2113.590.64-
2021/105.1427.2-2.253.9229.4814.190.62-
2021/94.04-19.22-30.3748.7734.0614.270.68-
2021/85.01-4.09-9.1844.7346.3116.240.6-
2021/75.22-13.134.2939.7258.5215.680.62去年因新冠狀病毒疫情、全球經濟停滞及工廠停工外;今年客戶拉貨力道強,持續趕工出貨,導致兩期差異較大。
2021/66.0135.0257.6734.572.0617.460.42去年因新冠狀病毒疫情、全球經濟停滞及工廠停工外;今年客戶拉貨力道強,持續趕工出貨,導致兩期差異較大。
2021/54.45-36.4536.7328.4975.4318.270.4去年因新冠狀病毒疫情、全球經濟停滞及工廠停工外;今年客戶拉貨力道強,春節期間仍有趕工加班出貨,導致兩期差異較大。
2021/47.02.860.524.0485.1317.950.41去年因新冠狀病毒疫情、全球經濟停滞及工廠停工外;今年客戶拉貨力道強,春節期間仍有趕工加班出貨,導致兩期差異較大。
2021/36.8165.0595.6717.0497.617.040.43去年因新冠狀病毒疫情、全球經濟停滞及工廠停工外;今年客戶拉貨力道強,春節期間仍有趕工加班出貨,導致兩期差異較大。
2021/24.13-32.27158.1610.2298.9116.950.43去年因新冠狀病毒疫情、全球經濟停滞及工廠停工外;今年客戶拉貨力道強,春節期間仍有趕工加班出貨,導致兩期差異較大。
2021/16.1-9.3972.156.172.1518.90.38較去年同期成長較多主因係去年1月適逢春節工作天數較少;另外今年1月運動器材客戶拉貨較多所致,導致兩期比較差異較大。
2020/126.7310.6223.0554.459.0318.070.3512月為自結數
2020/116.0815.629.5747.727.3117.150.3711月為自結數
2020/105.26-9.443.9741.646.9816.580.3810月為自結數
2020/95.815.3515.1736.387.4316.330.369月為自結數
2020/85.5110.1320.6830.576.0814.330.418月為自結數
2020/75.0131.3245.2125.063.3312.070.487月為自結數
2020/63.8117.098.220.05-3.611.430.466月為自結數
2020/53.26-25.410.1216.24-6.0111.10.475月為自結數
2020/44.3625.3330.6112.99-7.439.450.564月為自結數
2020/33.48117.75-22.18.62-19.328.620.813月為自結數
2020/21.6-54.83-22.595.14-17.3310.610.662月為自結數
2020/13.54-35.23-14.713.54-14.7114.560.481月為自結數
2019/125.47-1.49-5.0249.93-17.5716.080.4612月為自結數
2019/115.559.71-25.5844.47-18.8915.650.4711月為自結數
2019/105.060.31-29.7838.92-18.7914.670.510月為自結數
2019/95.0410.4-29.4233.86-16.8513.060.639月為自結數
2019/84.5732.51-29.4328.82-14.1711.540.718月為自結數
2019/73.45-2.14-27.7624.25-10.5310.220.87月為自結數
2019/63.528.34-19.3920.8-6.8510.110.846月為自結數
2019/53.25-2.7-18.4817.28-3.790.0N/A5月為自結數
2019/43.34-25.25-5.2914.030.390.0N/A4月為自結數
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
存貨銷售比
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/14.132023/12.82022/15.22021/16.12020/13.54
2024/23.02023/22.552022/24.12021/24.132020/21.6
2024/34.692023/33.942022/36.512021/36.812020/33.48
N/AN/A2023/43.422022/44.742021/47.02020/44.36
N/AN/A2023/53.412022/57.12021/54.452020/53.26
N/AN/A2023/63.692022/67.222021/66.012020/63.81
N/AN/A2023/73.72022/75.072021/75.222020/75.01
N/AN/A2023/85.772022/84.042021/85.012020/85.51
N/AN/A2023/95.312022/94.32021/94.042020/95.81
N/AN/A2023/104.052022/104.452021/105.142020/105.26
N/AN/A2023/114.292022/114.132021/114.42020/116.08
N/AN/A2023/123.682022/123.062021/125.372020/126.73
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 5.79%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
23Q4 (20)0.36-37.93-34.55
23Q3 (19)0.5813.7320.83
23Q2 (18)0.5150.0-12.07
23Q1 (17)0.34-38.18-59.52
22Q4 (16)0.5514.58-52.59
22Q3 (15)0.48-17.2414.29
22Q2 (14)0.58-30.9548.72
22Q1 (13)0.84-27.5947.37
21Q4 (12)1.16176.1920.83
21Q3 (11)0.427.69-20.75
21Q2 (10)0.39-31.5821.88
21Q1 (9)0.57-40.62-29.63
20Q4 (8)0.9681.1321.52
20Q3 (7)0.5365.62-41.76
20Q2 (6)0.32-60.49-60.98
20Q1 (5)0.812.5315.71
19Q4 (4)0.79-13.190.0
19Q3 (3)0.9110.980.0
19Q2 (2)0.8217.140.0
19Q1 (1)0.70.00.0

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