玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/3253.2460.48168.39558.22125.61558.22N/A主要係去年記憶體價格基期低,本期因原廠減產致使記憶體價格持續成長,下游手機客戶新機上市備貨,致使本期營收較去年同期成長。
2024/2157.87.2184.39304.9899.24465.63N/A主要係去年記憶體價格基期低,本期因原廠減產致使記憶體價格持續成長,本期營收較去年同期成長。
2024/1147.18-8.37118.07147.18118.07498.7N/A主要係記憶體價格上漲及因應農曆假期客戶提前備貨,且去年一月工作日數較少,致使本月營收較去年同期成長。
2023/12160.64-15.8442.031521.45-12.59491.740.46-
2023/11190.8836.1284.681360.81-16.39474.240.47主要係記憶體價格上漲,客戶提前備貨,致使本月營收較去年同期增加。
2023/10140.22-2.03-0.371169.93-23.24429.750.52-
2023/9143.14-2.2213.981029.71-25.57406.30.48-
2023/8146.3925.3513.14886.57-29.52390.460.5-
2023/7116.78-8.26-4.92740.19-34.41367.520.53-
2023/6127.33.12-6.18623.41-38.01375.990.51-
2023/5123.45-1.43-21.26496.11-42.97343.040.56-
2023/4125.2432.73-19.85372.66-47.75305.170.63-
2023/394.3510.25-51.66247.42-55.57247.420.88本期仍受整體半導體市場景氣持續低迷,消費性電子產品終端需求下滑,致使較去年同期營收減少。
2023/285.5726.78-40.52153.07-57.68266.170.82本期仍受整體半導體市場景氣持續低迷,消費性電子產品終端 需求下滑,致使較去年同期營收減少。
2023/167.49-40.32-69.0267.49-69.02283.940.77受農曆假期影響,工作日數減少,市場需求持續疲弱,致使本月營收減少。
2022/12113.19.43-37.741740.75-16.6357.190.61-
2022/11103.35-26.56-51.881627.65-14.59369.670.59雙十一整體電子產品銷售狀況不佳,且大陸持續進行封控,致手機客戶在終端銷售大幅下降,使本月營收較同期減少。
2022/10140.7412.0713.451524.3-9.85395.710.55-
2022/9125.58-2.94-35.081383.55-11.69377.80.76-
2022/8129.395.33-30.331257.97-8.4387.910.74-
2022/7122.83-9.47-23.181128.59-4.97415.320.69-
2022/6135.69-13.45-29.881005.76-2.14448.760.72-
2022/5156.790.33-6.98870.064.29508.290.64-
2022/4156.27-19.95-3.53713.277.14495.390.65-
2022/3195.2235.67-2.76557.010.58557.00.44-
2022/2143.89-33.952.76361.7719.43543.450.45-
2022/1217.8819.9333.76217.8833.76614.360.4-
2021/12181.67-15.4228.282087.3951.79520.530.57客戶因應銷售旺季及農曆年備貨之需求,提前備貨,使本期營收成長。
2021/11214.8173.1648.121905.7254.49532.310.56客戶因應耶誕節銷售旺季及農曆年備貨之需求,提前備貨,使本期營收成長。
2021/10124.05-35.876.031690.9155.34503.230.59由於手機及伺服器需求提升,且手機內鍵記憶體容量及價格增加,致使本期累計營收成長55.35%。
2021/9193.454.1546.191566.8661.28539.080.44整體半導體零組件市況持續暢旺,原廠產能吃緊帶動價格漲,下游伺服器等客戶需求增加帶動,使本期營收成長。
2021/8185.7316.1477.21373.4163.66539.180.44整體半導體零組件市況持續暢旺,原廠產能吃緊帶動價格漲,下游伺服器等客戶需求增加帶動,使本期營收成長。
2021/7159.91-17.3737.231187.6861.73522.010.46整體半導體零組件市況持續暢旺,原廠產能吃緊帶動價格漲,下游伺服器等客戶需求增加帶動,使本期營收成長。
2021/6193.5414.8183.41027.7866.35524.090.37整體半導體零組件市況持續暢旺,原廠產能吃緊帶動價格漲,下游伺服器等客戶需求增加帶動,使本期營收成長。
2021/5168.564.0569.78834.2362.84531.330.37整體半導體零組件市況持續暢旺,原廠產能吃緊帶動價格漲,下游伺服器等客戶需求增加帶動,使本期營收成長。
2021/4161.99-19.3179.01665.6761.17502.80.39整體半導體零組件市況持續暢旺,原廠產能吃緊帶動價格漲,下游品牌手機推出新機帶動,使本期營收成長。
2021/3200.7843.3950.86503.6856.17503.680.29整體半導體零組件市況持續暢旺,原廠產能吃緊帶動價格漲,下游品牌手機推出新機帶動,使本期營收成長。
2021/2140.02-14.0331.97302.959.9444.520.33半導體需求暢旺且產能吃緊,因大陸疫情發展,要求人員在地過年,使各工廠開工率增加,提前備貨以因應期間需求,使本期營收成長。
2021/1162.8815.0195.45162.8895.45449.520.33半導體需求暢旺且產能吃緊,因大陸疫情發展,要求人員在地過年,使各工廠開工率增加,提前備貨以因應期間需求,使本期營收成長。
2020/12141.62-2.3442.421375.122.13403.630.36-
2020/11145.0223.9642.671233.4820.17394.330.37-
2020/10116.99-11.58-2.961088.4617.7354.120.41-
2020/9132.3226.2510.9971.4720.79353.650.24-
2020/8104.81-10.05-14.69839.1522.52326.860.26-
2020/7116.5210.4111.1734.3430.65321.330.26-
2020/6105.536.2933.25617.8235.14295.30.42-
2020/599.289.7137.84512.2935.53322.860.38-
2020/490.49-32.0-6.61413.0134.99329.680.37-
2020/3133.0925.4475.23322.5254.28322.520.27因下游伺服器等客戶需求強勁,致使本期營收成長。
2020/2106.127.31108.47189.4342.32288.870.31去年同期適逢農曆過年,本期下游伺服器客戶需求暢旺,及部分客戶因應記憶體價格波動提前備貨,致使本期營收成長。
2020/183.33-16.191.3783.331.37284.420.31-
2019/1299.43-2.17-0.581125.86-20.82321.650.23-
2019/11101.65-15.690.581026.42-22.35341.530.22-
2019/10120.571.04-10.92924.78-24.25362.740.21-
2019/9119.32-2.88-23.94804.21-25.91347.050.16-
2019/8122.8617.15-13.59684.89-26.24306.920.18-
2019/7104.8732.43-25.85562.03-28.53256.090.21-
2019/679.199.95-40.9457.16-29.11248.120.34-
2019/572.02-25.67-48.82377.97-26.020.0N/A-
2019/496.927.58-10.6305.95-17.360.0N/A-
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
存貨銷售比
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/1147.182023/167.492022/1217.882021/1162.882020/183.33
2024/2157.82023/285.572022/2143.892021/2140.022020/2106.1
2024/3253.242023/394.352022/3195.222021/3200.782020/3133.09
N/AN/A2023/4125.242022/4156.272021/4161.992020/490.49
N/AN/A2023/5123.452022/5156.792021/5168.562020/599.28
N/AN/A2023/6127.32022/6135.692021/6193.542020/6105.53
N/AN/A2023/7116.782022/7122.832021/7159.912020/7116.52
N/AN/A2023/8146.392022/8129.392021/8185.732020/8104.81
N/AN/A2023/9143.142022/9125.582021/9193.452020/9132.32
N/AN/A2023/10140.222022/10140.742021/10124.052020/10116.99
N/AN/A2023/11190.882022/11103.352021/11214.812020/11145.02
N/AN/A2023/12160.642022/12113.12021/12181.672020/12141.62
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 13.93%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
23Q4 (20)7.5810.17309.73
23Q3 (19)6.8872.4380.58
23Q2 (18)3.99-2.4474.24
23Q1 (17)4.09121.082.51
22Q4 (16)1.85-51.44-93.95
22Q3 (15)3.8166.38-86.31
22Q2 (14)2.29-42.61-89.65
22Q1 (13)3.99-86.95-44.35
21Q4 (12)30.589.88852.65
21Q3 (11)27.8325.811244.44
21Q2 (10)22.12208.510
21Q1 (9)7.17123.360
20Q4 (8)3.2155.070
20Q3 (7)2.0700

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