玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/31.09113.71-11.522.25-22.482.25N/A-
2024/20.51-21.49-8.061.16-30.571.57N/A受通膨等原因影響,整體市場需求下降
2024/10.6559.05-41.760.65-41.762.56N/A受通膨等原因影響,整體市場需求下降
2023/120.41-72.63-59.4311.64-53.73.191.92受通膨等原因影響,整體市場需求下降
2023/111.516.64-10.7211.23-53.474.411.39受通膨等原因影響,整體市場需求下降
2023/101.28-21.28-28.49.74-56.653.771.62受通膨等原因影響,整體市場需求下降
2023/91.6388.78.238.45-59.13.342.09受通膨等原因影響,整體市場需求下降
2023/80.861.99-66.216.82-64.392.253.09受通膨等原因影響,整體市場需求下降
2023/70.8555.58-64.185.96-64.112.13.33受通膨等原因影響,整體市場需求下降
2023/60.54-22.91-76.875.11-64.12.213.64受通膨等原因影響,整體市場需求下降
2023/50.71-26.13-67.474.57-61.572.92.77受通膨等原因影響,整體市場需求下降
2023/40.96-22.62-57.03.86-60.262.752.92歐洲地區需求下滑,客戶訂單減少
2023/31.23122.07-50.812.91-61.232.912.94越南代工廠生產良率已改善,但產量仍未達目標,影響出貨
2023/20.56-50.26-77.681.67-66.462.683.19越南代工廠生產良率尚未提昇,量產未如預期,影響出貨
2023/11.1210.78-55.281.12-55.283.82.25生產技術移轉問題導致量產延後,延遲出貨,影響營收較去年下降
2022/121.01-39.77-50.6725.15-13.494.481.65受全球通膨、烏俄戰爭等影響導致需求下滑及代工廠轉移至越南,生產技術移轉問題導致量產延後,延遲出貨,影響營收較去年下降
2022/111.68-6.45-24.3424.14-10.674.971.49-
2022/101.7918.99-31.6222.46-9.455.851.26-
2022/91.51-41.09-44.2920.67-6.846.420.96-
2022/82.568.130.0719.17-1.647.270.85-
2022/72.360.4316.8116.61-1.96.890.9-
2022/62.358.44-5.8814.25-4.446.740.9-
2022/52.17-2.36-11.8511.89-4.156.90.88-
2022/42.22-11.48-6.489.72-2.257.220.84-
2022/32.510.73-3.877.5-0.927.50.96-
2022/22.49-0.333.314.990.627.041.02-
2022/12.522.21-1.922.5-1.926.761.07-
2021/122.05-7.62-26.8129.077.486.880.89-
2021/112.21-15.453.4927.0211.447.540.81-
2021/102.62-3.04-0.0424.8112.217.880.78-
2021/92.75.821.8422.1913.867.280.48-
2021/82.5526.22-2.0419.4915.757.080.5-
2021/72.02-19.09-19.6116.9319.016.980.5-
2021/62.51.561.514.9127.317.340.4-
2021/52.463.5924.2812.4134.197.450.39-
2021/42.38-9.026.769.9536.887.40.39-
2021/32.618.2642.477.5740.47.570.42-
2021/22.41-5.3846.234.9639.347.760.41-
2021/12.55-8.833.42.5533.47.480.43-
2020/122.830.6359.8227.04-4.57.560.41本月客戶端需求較去年同期增加
2020/112.14-18.3525.3824.25-8.747.410.42-
2020/102.62-1.2128.7722.11-11.087.880.39-
2020/92.651.7818.0419.49-14.637.780.51-
2020/82.613.58-0.6316.83-18.27.590.52-
2020/72.522.16-8.0114.23-20.776.960.57-
2020/62.4624.36-16.9111.71-23.066.320.97-
2020/51.985.65-24.919.25-24.555.691.07-
2020/41.872.27-22.97.27-24.455.361.14-
2020/31.8311.12-24.335.39-24.985.391.02-
2020/21.65-13.68-31.793.56-25.315.311.03-
2020/11.919.25-18.651.91-18.655.371.02-
2019/121.752.48-23.4928.32-46.725.491.32-
2019/111.71-16.14-23.6126.57-47.765.991.21-
2019/102.04-9.44-36.424.87-48.876.911.05-
2019/92.25-14.31-48.022.83-49.757.611.08-
2019/82.62-4.1-42.0320.58-49.948.320.98-
2019/72.74-7.72-41.0417.96-50.928.340.98本月客戶端需求較去年同期減少所致
2019/62.9612.39-42.515.22-52.358.031.15本月客戶端需求較去年同期減少所致
2019/52.648.48-48.0712.26-54.240.0N/A本月客戶端需求較去年同期減少所致
2019/42.430.36-55.459.62-55.690.0N/A本月客戶端需求較去年同期減少所致
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
存貨銷售比
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/10.652023/11.122022/12.52021/12.552020/11.91
2024/20.512023/20.562022/22.492021/22.412020/21.65
2024/31.092023/31.232022/32.512021/32.612020/31.83
N/AN/A2023/40.962022/42.222021/42.382020/41.87
N/AN/A2023/50.712022/52.172021/52.462020/51.98
N/AN/A2023/60.542022/62.352021/62.52020/62.46
N/AN/A2023/70.852022/72.362021/72.022020/72.52
N/AN/A2023/80.862022/82.562021/82.552020/82.61
N/AN/A2023/91.632022/91.512021/92.72020/92.65
N/AN/A2023/101.282022/101.792021/102.622020/102.62
N/AN/A2023/111.52022/111.682021/112.212020/112.14
N/AN/A2023/120.412022/121.012021/122.052020/122.8
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 0.3%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
23Q4 (20)0.020.00.0
23Q3 (19)0.02-77.780.0
23Q2 (18)0.09350.0800.0
23Q1 (17)0.020.0-33.33
22Q4 (16)0.020.0100.0
22Q3 (15)0.02100.0-33.33
22Q2 (14)0.01-66.67-90.91
22Q1 (13)0.03200.0-50.0
21Q4 (12)0.01-66.67-95.45
21Q3 (11)0.03-72.73-96.88
21Q2 (10)0.1183.33-26.67
21Q1 (9)0.06-72.73-72.73
20Q4 (8)0.22-77.0883.33
20Q3 (7)0.96540.0231.03
20Q2 (6)0.15-31.82-55.88
20Q1 (5)0.2283.33-15.38
19Q4 (4)0.12-58.620.0
19Q3 (3)0.29-14.710.0
19Q2 (2)0.3430.770.0
19Q1 (1)0.260.00.0

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