玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/30.56-14.8632.931.8927.671.89N/A-
2024/20.66-2.123.341.3325.611.79N/A-
2024/10.6744.1327.850.6727.851.76N/A-
2023/120.47-25.77-38.86.61-26.151.731.35-
2023/110.63-1.687.746.14-24.982.021.15-
2023/100.64-15.61-16.385.52-27.342.01.17-
2023/90.7625.53-2.814.88-28.472.041.17-
2023/80.6-11.39-16.664.13-31.621.821.31-
2023/70.6825.911.133.53-33.571.721.39-
2023/60.547.6-34.982.86-39.221.381.89-
2023/50.548.71-41.822.32-40.131.262.07-
2023/40.34-19.8-58.621.82-39.691.292.02本年度半導體產業景氣保守,量產訂單占比較低。
2023/30.42-21.0-46.311.48-32.751.481.64-
2023/20.531.47-22.981.06-25.351.821.34-
2023/10.52-31.0-27.610.52-27.611.871.3-
2022/120.7630.68-5.828.9518.622.111.04-
2022/110.58-23.71-21.688.1921.592.121.03-
2022/100.76-1.927.227.626.772.260.97-
2022/90.787.6414.496.8329.332.110.91-
2022/80.7218.1620.766.0531.512.170.89-
2022/70.61-26.344.965.3233.072.30.83-
2022/60.83-3.7120.684.737.672.510.62-
2022/50.865.7636.93.8742.092.460.63-
2022/40.824.0541.873.0143.882.290.68-
2022/30.7813.3254.862.244.762.20.71今年三月營收較去年同期增長超過50%,係去年二月德州廠房受冰災影響減產,今年為正常營運。
2022/20.69-4.6376.561.4239.82.220.71今年二月營收較去年同期增長超過50%,係去年二月德州廠房受冰災影響減產,致去年二月營收低於水平,今年為正常營運。
2022/10.73-10.2416.560.7316.562.280.69-
2021/120.818.685.027.5512.942.260.65-
2021/110.744.4442.356.7414.122.130.69-
2021/100.714.7337.585.9911.361.990.74-
2021/90.6813.5331.525.288.551.860.82-
2021/80.62.71-9.474.65.591.870.81-
2021/70.58-15.312.714.08.541.90.8-
2021/60.699.2143.543.429.621.890.79-
2021/50.639.613.612.733.361.710.88-
2021/40.5713.57-0.522.090.571.471.02-
2021/30.5129.2-9.531.520.981.521.01-
2021/20.39-37.03-13.371.017.191.780.86-
2021/10.62-19.1326.150.6226.151.910.8-
2020/120.7747.3233.436.68-6.211.810.91-
2020/110.520.94-2.325.9-9.851.561.06-
2020/100.520.12-23.155.38-10.531.70.97-
2020/90.52-21.86-11.024.86-8.931.750.86-
2020/80.6616.5510.264.35-10.191.710.88-
2020/70.5718.34-13.023.68-13.051.60.94-
2020/60.48-13.54-15.713.12-11.121.610.91-
2020/50.55-4.03-13.912.64-10.211.690.86-
2020/40.583.2819.362.08-9.211.590.92-
2020/30.5623.72-10.71.5-16.861.51.0-
2020/20.45-8.3-13.920.95-20.11.520.99-
2020/10.49-14.47-25.030.49-25.031.60.93-
2019/120.587.8316.937.129.461.780.87-
2019/110.53-20.589.226.558.871.790.87-
2019/100.6715.939.466.018.91.850.84-
2019/90.58-3.168.125.348.781.830.95-
2019/80.6-8.062.094.8510.941.820.96-
2019/70.6514.6818.414.2411.971.870.94-
2019/60.57-11.710.943.518.451.70.94-
2019/50.6433.06101.932.948.00.0N/A去年5月營收偏低,本年回復水準
2019/40.48-22.73-0.92.29-4.270.0N/A-
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
存貨銷售比
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/10.672023/10.522022/10.732021/10.622020/10.49
2024/20.662023/20.532022/20.692021/20.392020/20.45
2024/30.562023/30.422022/30.782021/30.512020/30.56
N/AN/A2023/40.342022/40.822021/40.572020/40.58
N/AN/A2023/50.52022/50.862021/50.632020/50.55
N/AN/A2023/60.542022/60.832021/60.692020/60.48
N/AN/A2023/70.682022/70.612021/70.582020/70.57
N/AN/A2023/80.62022/80.722021/80.62020/80.66
N/AN/A2023/90.762022/90.782021/90.682020/90.52
N/AN/A2023/100.642022/100.762021/100.712020/100.52
N/AN/A2023/110.632022/110.582021/110.742020/110.52
N/AN/A2023/120.472022/120.762021/120.812020/120.77
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 1.36%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
23Q4 (20)0.0566.67-44.44
23Q3 (19)0.030.0-40.0
23Q2 (18)0.030.0-25.0
23Q1 (17)0.03-66.67-62.5
22Q4 (16)0.0980.00.0
22Q3 (15)0.0525.0-16.67
22Q2 (14)0.04-50.0-33.33
22Q1 (13)0.08-11.1133.33
21Q4 (12)0.0950.050.0
21Q3 (11)0.060.00.0
21Q2 (10)0.060.020.0
21Q1 (9)0.060.020.0
20Q4 (8)0.060.0200.0
20Q3 (7)0.0620.0200.0
20Q2 (6)0.050.0150.0
20Q1 (5)0.05150.066.67
19Q4 (4)0.020.00.0
19Q3 (3)0.020.00.0
19Q2 (2)0.02-33.330.0
19Q1 (1)0.030.00.0

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