玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/315.4-8.2-21.752.913.3952.91N/A-
2024/216.77-19.1437.1137.5219.0560.35N/A-
2024/120.74-9.157.620.747.664.51N/A-
2023/1222.839.09-10.08240.785.765.010.78-
2023/1120.93-1.46-1.48217.947.6862.860.81-
2023/1021.242.68-8.35197.018.7563.490.8-
2023/920.698.18-18.56175.7711.2664.160.85-
2023/821.56-1.62-8.97152.7115.1962.190.88-
2023/721.9217.130.96131.1520.4457.840.94-
2023/618.718.73-2.06109.2325.2958.060.89-
2023/517.21-22.29135.4690.5232.9759.010.88本月營收較去年同期增加,主要係因去年同期受疫情封控影響出貨量。
2023/422.1412.6270.373.3220.6554.040.96本月營收較去年同期增加,主要係因去年同期受疫情封控影響出貨量。
2023/319.6660.7456.5451.177.1351.171.13本月營收較去年同期增加,主要係因去年同期受疫情封控影響出貨量。
2023/212.23-36.55-11.4931.51-10.4956.911.02-
2023/119.28-24.08-9.8419.28-9.8465.920.88-
2022/1225.419.5415.23227.7913.1169.820.86-
2022/1121.24-8.3414.0202.412.8569.820.86-
2022/1023.18-8.7532.97181.1512.7272.270.83-
2022/925.47.2468.76157.9710.2670.790.92本月營收較去年同期增加,因上半年受疫情封控影響出貨量,客戶於解封後提高產量,以及去年同期受車用晶片短缺影響客戶產量下降。
2022/823.699.1174.6132.573.3964.51.01本月營收較去年同期增加,因上半年受疫情封控影響出貨量,客戶於解封後提高產量,以及去年同期受車用晶片短缺影響客戶產量下降。
2022/721.7113.635.7108.89-5.0348.121.36-
2022/619.11161.454.9787.18-11.6339.421.56-
2022/57.31-43.79-58.0968.07-15.3932.871.87111年5月較去年同期減少58%,主要係因受中國疫情影響供應鏈受阻,導致客戶拉貨量減少
2022/413.03.52-30.3360.77-3.5739.381.56-
2022/312.56-9.12-5.1447.767.6847.761.1-
2022/213.82-35.37-2.9935.213.1457.240.92-
2022/121.38-2.9626.7721.3826.7762.060.85-
2021/1222.0418.25-28.34201.38-7.0258.10.87-
2021/1118.646.91-25.52179.34-3.4951.120.99-
2021/1017.4315.8-7.46160.7-0.0646.051.1-
2021/915.0510.95-21.73143.270.9144.611.1-
2021/813.57-15.19-19.02128.224.4647.761.03-
2021/716.0-12.11-12.75114.668.1751.640.95-
2021/618.24.365.998.6612.5554.310.84-
2021/517.44-6.554.5280.4614.1749.350.92-
2021/418.6740.965.9863.0217.1646.150.98-
2021/313.24-7.0564.144.3622.5944.361.13因去年受疫情影響,基期較低故造成該差異。
2021/214.25-15.5443.4631.1110.6861.870.81-
2021/116.87-45.15-7.2116.87-7.2172.640.69-
2020/1230.7522.9126.3216.59-1.3574.610.55-
2020/1125.0232.8315.77185.83-4.863.090.65-
2020/1018.84-2.0623.42160.81-7.3654.820.74-
2020/919.2314.8-10.69141.98-10.3354.320.87-
2020/816.75-8.62-0.07122.75-10.2752.270.9-
2020/718.336.688.8105.99-11.752.20.9-
2020/617.193.0-8.0687.66-15.0451.480.84-
2020/516.68-5.257.270.47-16.5942.361.02-
2020/417.61118.25-5.5653.79-21.9635.611.22-
2020/38.07-18.74-51.4836.18-28.0436.181.18主係中國大陸地區受新冠肺炎影響,各地客戶復工時間不一,影響正常出貸,致本月營收下降
2020/29.93-45.38-34.5128.11-16.4652.460.81-
2020/118.18-25.33-1.6718.18-1.6764.140.67-
2019/1224.3512.6713.37219.560.9761.220.76-
2019/1121.6141.6116.46195.21-0.3858.410.8-
2019/1015.26-29.13-15.07173.6-2.1453.560.87-
2019/921.5328.4525.12158.34-0.6955.150.85-
2019/816.76-0.51-10.14136.8-3.8152.310.89-
2019/716.85-9.85-11.89120.04-2.8651.110.91-
2019/618.6920.14.18103.19-1.252.910.96-
2019/515.56-16.54-18.5884.5-2.320.0N/A-
2019/418.6512.14-8.4168.932.280.0N/A-
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
存貨銷售比
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/120.742023/119.282022/121.382021/116.872020/118.18
2024/216.772023/212.232022/213.822021/214.252020/29.93
2024/315.42023/319.662022/312.562021/313.242020/38.07
N/AN/A2023/422.142022/413.02021/418.672020/417.61
N/AN/A2023/517.212022/57.312021/517.442020/516.68
N/AN/A2023/618.712022/619.112021/618.22020/617.19
N/AN/A2023/721.922022/721.712021/716.02020/718.33
N/AN/A2023/821.562022/823.692021/813.572020/816.75
N/AN/A2023/920.692022/925.42021/915.052020/919.23
N/AN/A2023/1021.242022/1023.182021/1017.432020/1018.84
N/AN/A2023/1120.932022/1121.242021/1118.642020/1125.02
N/AN/A2023/1222.832022/1225.42021/1222.042020/1230.75
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 7.64%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
23Q4 (20)0.92-57.99-73.56
23Q3 (19)2.19-44.13-35.59
23Q2 (18)3.92-33.5660.66
23Q1 (17)5.969.5492.81
22Q4 (16)3.482.3526.55
22Q3 (15)3.439.3411.84
22Q2 (14)2.44-20.26-0.41
22Q1 (13)3.0611.276.25
21Q4 (12)2.75-9.54-8.03
21Q3 (11)3.0424.08-14.61
21Q2 (10)2.45-14.93-24.85
21Q1 (9)2.88-3.68-1.71
20Q4 (8)2.99-16.0112.83
20Q3 (7)3.569.2-20.0
20Q2 (6)3.2611.26-19.31
20Q1 (5)2.9310.57-20.38
19Q4 (4)2.65-40.450.0
19Q3 (3)4.4510.150.0
19Q2 (2)4.049.780.0
19Q1 (1)3.680.00.0

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