玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/35.231.75-34.8215.6-25.1815.6N/A-
2024/25.14-1.45-17.4210.36-19.1316.88N/A-
2024/15.22-19.93-20.755.22-20.7517.22N/A-
2023/126.5218.86-7.6482.354.4818.950.64-
2023/115.48-21.08-31.8775.835.6820.040.61-
2023/106.95-8.57-14.1870.3410.4221.950.55-
2023/97.62.72-1.363.3914.0122.660.63-
2023/87.4-3.4114.4355.7916.4720.80.69-
2023/77.6633.5723.2348.3916.7920.50.7-
2023/65.74-19.24-14.3740.7315.6519.890.77-
2023/57.10.815.6534.9922.7122.180.69-
2023/47.05-12.2534.2527.8927.9721.30.72-
2023/38.0328.9118.3520.8425.9820.840.81-
2023/26.23-5.4375.312.8131.2819.870.85去年同期有業績衰退出貨量減少之情形,致本月增減百分比達50%以上。
2023/16.59-6.686.096.596.0921.70.78-
2022/127.06-12.3230.4478.8159.9323.210.78業績成長出貨量增加,致本年累計增減百分比達50%以上。
2022/118.05-0.5874.8471.7563.5623.850.76業績成長出貨量增加,致本月及本年累計增減百分比達50%以上。
2022/108.15.1493.7563.762.2422.270.81業績成長出貨量增加,致本月及本年累計增減百分比達50%以上
2022/97.719.194.4355.658.4920.390.95業績成長出貨量增加,致本月及本年累計增減百分比達50%以上。
2022/86.474.0138.4347.953.9119.381.0業績成長出貨量增加,致本年累計增減百分比達50%以上。
2022/76.22-7.1942.2641.4356.6519.640.98業績成長出貨量增加,致本年累計增減百分比達50%以上。
2022/66.7-0.3577.2935.2259.4918.670.99業績成長出貨量增加,致本月及本年累計增減百分比達50%以上。
2022/56.7228.171.5228.5255.8218.760.98業績成長出貨量增加,致本月及本年累計增減百分比達50%以上。
2022/45.25-22.6440.5121.7951.5415.591.18業績成長出貨量增加,致本年累計增減百分比達50%以上。
2022/36.7890.9561.3116.5555.4116.550.98業績成長出貨量增加,致本月及本年累計增減百分比達50%以上。
2022/23.55-42.7724.959.7651.5615.171.07去年前期及同期均有業績衰退出貨量減少之情形,致本期累計增減百分比達51.56%。
2022/16.2114.7372.66.2172.616.221.0去年本月業績衰退出貨量減少致增減百分比達50%以上。
2021/125.4117.5135.8749.285.0814.21.05-
2021/114.610.1633.2943.872.2212.751.17-
2021/104.185.526.7739.26-0.4912.811.17-
2021/93.96-15.21.8235.08-2.9713.00.98-
2021/84.676.8875.0131.12-3.5512.821.0去年本月業績衰退出貨量減少致增減百分比達50%以上。
2021/74.3715.660.8726.45-10.6412.071.06-
2021/63.78-3.5912.2322.08-12.6211.430.95-
2021/53.924.9414.3318.3-16.4411.860.91-
2021/43.73-11.1919.0514.38-22.1510.781.0-
2021/34.2147.9-0.5810.65-30.5810.650.93-
2021/22.84-20.94-31.426.44-42.010.420.95-
2021/13.6-9.68-48.313.6-48.3111.030.9-
2020/123.9815.28-34.9946.89-23.6710.730.81-
2020/113.454.78-47.1942.91-22.4210.640.82-
2020/103.3-15.25-52.3339.46-19.19.860.88去年本月業績成長出貨量增加,本月因客戶需求減少致增減百分比達50%以上。
2020/93.8945.74-20.9436.16-13.6110.890.87-
2020/82.67-38.39-45.0832.27-12.6310.370.91-
2020/74.3328.68-18.1529.6-7.7111.130.85-
2020/63.37-1.79-33.7425.27-5.659.930.95-
2020/53.439.27-39.3521.90.9210.80.88-
2020/43.14-25.84-17.8618.4715.111.510.82-
2020/34.232.02-1.815.3425.415.340.55-
2020/24.15-40.4125.0811.1140.217.230.49-
2020/16.9613.5951.086.9651.0819.630.43本月業績成長出貨量增加,致本月增減百分比達50%以上。
2019/126.13-6.357.6961.4422.3719.580.45-
2019/116.54-5.4152.4955.3124.2518.380.48本月業績成長出貨量增加,致本月增減百分比達50%以上。
2019/106.9240.5570.4748.7721.2416.70.53本月業績成長出貨量增加,致本月增減百分比達50%以上。
2019/94.921.245.341.8615.7115.070.63-
2019/84.86-8.1813.6836.9417.2615.230.62-
2019/75.294.1738.3532.0817.8216.030.59-
2019/65.08-10.1136.7226.7814.4614.550.58-
2019/55.6548.0136.1821.710.260.0N/A-
2019/43.82-11.352.5416.053.330.0N/A-
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
存貨銷售比
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/15.222023/16.592022/16.212021/13.62020/16.96
2024/25.142023/26.232022/23.552021/22.842020/24.15
2024/35.232023/38.032022/36.782021/34.212020/34.23
N/AN/A2023/47.052022/45.252021/43.732020/43.14
N/AN/A2023/57.12022/56.722021/53.922020/53.43
N/AN/A2023/65.742022/66.72021/63.782020/63.37
N/AN/A2023/77.662022/76.222021/74.372020/74.33
N/AN/A2023/87.42022/86.472021/84.672020/82.67
N/AN/A2023/97.62022/97.72021/93.962020/93.89
N/AN/A2023/106.952022/108.12021/104.182020/103.3
N/AN/A2023/115.482022/118.052021/114.62020/113.45
N/AN/A2023/126.522022/127.062021/125.412020/123.98
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 7.74%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
23Q4 (20)0.56-35.63-67.63
23Q3 (19)0.87-45.62-55.38
23Q2 (18)1.61.9139.13
23Q1 (17)1.57-9.2582.56
22Q4 (16)1.73-11.28150.72
22Q3 (15)1.9569.57353.49
22Q2 (14)1.1533.72180.49
22Q1 (13)0.8624.64244.0
21Q4 (12)0.6960.47109.09
21Q3 (11)0.434.8865.38
21Q2 (10)0.4164.00
21Q1 (9)0.25-24.240
20Q4 (8)0.3326.920
20Q3 (7)0.260-86.1

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