玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/320.462326.891806.8224.3324.3824.3N/A因本期成屋銷售情形較去年同期佳所致
2024/20.84-71.87-59.543.84-17.4712.74N/A因去年同期成屋銷售情形較本月佳所致
2024/13.0-66.3216.653.016.6527.2N/A-
2023/128.9-41.8689.747.46-32.8627.211.84本月成屋銷售情形較去年同期佳所致
2023/1115.31411.7320.0138.56-41.5720.6415.6本月成屋銷售情形較去年同期佳所致
2023/102.9927.57-28.4923.25-62.77.2844.25因去年同期成屋銷售情形較本月佳所致
2023/92.3420.75-56.2520.26-65.168.4837.6因去年同期成屋銷售情形較本月佳所致
2023/81.94-53.69-46.3217.92-66.078.537.51因去年同期成屋銷售情形較本月佳所致
2023/74.1977.29-53.6315.98-67.528.637.08因去年同期成屋銷售情形較本月佳所致
2023/62.3716.0-64.5611.78-70.656.0651.95因去年同期成屋銷售情形較本月佳所致
2023/52.0423.36-59.239.42-71.864.7666.03因去年同期成屋銷售情形較本月佳所致
2023/41.6554.01-77.147.38-74.084.8165.41因去年同期成屋銷售情形較本月佳所致
2023/31.07-48.5-87.635.73-73.045.7353.9因去年同期成屋銷售情形較本月佳所致
2023/22.08-18.88-59.24.65-62.969.3433.03因去年同期成屋銷售情形較本月佳所致
2023/12.57-45.22-65.552.57-65.5510.928.3因去年同期成屋銷售情形較本月佳所致
2022/124.6928.71-74.7570.69-9.9412.5224.46因去年同期成屋銷售情形較本月佳所致
2022/113.64-12.88-62.8966.010.1513.1923.22因去年同期成屋銷售情形較本月佳所致
2022/104.18-21.94-33.6662.3624.4713.1623.27-
2022/95.3648.1659.0758.1732.8418.0216.88今年同期出售成屋狀況較去年同期佳。
2022/83.62-60.0-23.252.8130.6519.3415.73-
2022/79.0435.51123.8549.237.7620.7214.68因本月成屋銷售情形較去年同期佳所致
2022/66.6733.4429.8540.1526.7718.9116.29-
2022/55.0-30.8524.9533.4826.1820.9114.73-
2022/47.23-16.66-36.0528.4826.3921.0214.65-
2022/38.6869.91134.4921.2589.3521.2514.65因本月成屋銷售情形較去年同期佳所致
2022/25.11-31.5183.5812.5767.1331.1510.0因本月成屋銷售情形較去年同期佳所致
2022/17.46-59.8657.467.4657.4635.868.68因本月成屋銷售情形較去年同期佳所致
2021/1218.5889.21212.2678.521.5834.717.9因本月成屋銷售情形較去年同期佳所致
2021/119.8255.7241.3559.922.2219.514.07-
2021/106.3187.1729.6450.1-3.0314.3919.06-
2021/93.37-28.46-79.2143.79-6.4312.1220.02去年同期出售成屋狀況較今年同期佳。
2021/84.7116.58-12.1440.4232.1413.5517.9-
2021/74.04-15.911.9635.7141.5512.8518.89-
2021/64.820.03-24.2131.3444.9420.1211.68-
2021/54.0-64.6180.9726.5373.6319.0112.36因今年累計成屋銷售情形較去年同期佳所致
2021/411.31205.59339.1322.5372.3817.7913.21因本月成屋銷售情形較去年同期佳所致
2021/33.733.02-28.0611.226.9111.2221.37-
2021/22.78-41.25-2.897.5240.5613.4717.8-
2021/14.74-20.4190.694.7490.6917.6313.6因本月成屋銷售情形較去年同期佳所致
2020/125.95-14.34-26.664.56102.2317.7612.92因今年累計成屋銷售情形較去年同期佳所致
2020/116.9542.82632.9358.61146.0928.028.19因本月成屋銷售情形較去年同期佳所致
2020/104.86-69.9951.9451.67125.9126.448.68因本月成屋銷售情形較去年同期佳所致
2020/916.21202.37709.8446.8137.9525.188.63因本月成屋銷售情形較去年同期佳所致
2020/85.3648.57298.7630.5973.1515.3114.19因本月成屋銷售情形較去年同期佳所致
2020/73.61-43.07107.5325.2354.5712.1617.87因本月成屋銷售情形較去年同期佳所致
2020/66.34186.6531.3121.6248.2511.1320.06-
2020/52.21-14.1321.7115.2856.649.9322.47因本月成屋銷售情形較去年同期佳所致
2020/42.58-49.94-3.3913.0764.6310.5921.08本公司營收較去年增加,係因銷售情形較佳所致。
2020/35.1579.5888.3710.4999.0310.4920.75本公司3月份營收較去年同期增加,係因銷售情形較佳所致。
2020/22.8715.36367.535.35110.4913.4616.18本公司2月份營收較去年同期增加,係因成屋銷售情形較佳所致。
2020/12.48-69.3728.82.4828.811.5418.87-
2019/128.11755.4245.3831.934.2612.2618.04因本月成屋銷售情形較去年同期佳所致
2019/110.95-70.38-59.7223.82-15.756.1535.94本公司本月營收較去年同期減少,係因成屋銷售情形較少所致。
2019/103.259.9255.7822.87-11.766.5533.77因本月成屋銷售情形較去年同期佳所致
2019/92.048.88-23.219.67-17.585.0843.65-
2019/81.34-22.67-56.5317.67-16.897.9128.06本期營收較去年同期減少,係因成屋銷售較低所致。
2019/71.74-63.98366.616.32-10.148.3826.48因成屋銷售情形較上期佳所致。
2019/64.83165.7-54.5714.58-18.039.3123.77本期營收較去年同期減少,係因成屋銷售較低所致。
2019/51.82-31.8465.29.7636.190.0N/A本期較去年同期增加,主要出售成屋情形較佳。
2019/42.67-2.39249.637.9430.930.0N/A本公司截至4月底累計營收較去年同期增加,係因成屋銷售情形較上期增加所致。
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
存貨銷售比
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/13.02023/12.572022/17.462021/14.742020/12.48
2024/20.842023/22.082022/25.112021/22.782020/22.87
2024/320.462023/31.072022/38.682021/33.72020/35.15
N/AN/A2023/41.652022/47.232021/411.312020/42.58
N/AN/A2023/52.042022/55.02021/54.02020/52.21
N/AN/A2023/62.372022/66.672021/64.82020/66.34
N/AN/A2023/74.192022/79.042021/74.042020/73.61
N/AN/A2023/81.942022/83.622021/84.712020/85.36
N/AN/A2023/92.342022/95.362021/93.372020/916.21
N/AN/A2023/102.992022/104.182021/106.312020/104.86
N/AN/A2023/1115.312022/113.642021/119.822020/116.95
N/AN/A2023/128.92022/124.692021/1218.582020/125.95
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 22.7%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
23Q4 (20)7.4420.1983.25
23Q3 (19)6.19-2.3749.52
23Q2 (18)6.3425.7928.86
23Q1 (17)5.0424.1424.75
22Q4 (16)4.06-1.9317.0
22Q3 (15)4.14-15.8591.67
22Q2 (14)4.9221.78119.64
22Q1 (13)4.0416.4311.6
21Q4 (12)3.4760.65131.33
21Q3 (11)2.16-3.5745.95
21Q2 (10)2.24-38.1256.64
21Q1 (9)3.62141.33285.11
20Q4 (8)1.51.3530.43
20Q3 (7)1.483.5-50.5
20Q2 (6)1.4352.13-51.36
20Q1 (5)0.94-18.26-70.99
19Q4 (4)1.15-61.540.0
19Q3 (3)2.991.70.0
19Q2 (2)2.94-9.260.0
19Q1 (1)3.240.00.0

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