玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/33.59118.7212.717.2810.77.28N/A-
2024/21.64-20.03-21.323.698.829.08N/A-
2024/12.05-61.8556.932.0556.9312.2N/A主要係來自於子公司營收成長影響所致
2023/125.3812.8562.5634.7714.4511.920.54主要係來自於子公司營收成長影響所致
2023/114.77106.0420.3429.398.569.580.67-
2023/101.77-41.67-49.024.626.548.180.79-
2023/93.04-9.762.922.8416.389.390.8-
2023/83.3713.039.6119.818.778.640.87-
2023/72.9830.1437.2416.4415.247.790.97-
2023/62.29-9.08-33.6413.4611.296.880.92-
2023/52.5221.8241.7911.1729.257.770.82-
2023/42.07-35.0952.228.6526.07.340.87主要係來自於子公司營收成長影響所致
2023/33.1952.6629.016.5819.536.580.97-
2023/22.0959.564.873.3911.826.710.95主要係來自於子公司營收成長影響所致
2023/11.31-60.48-26.11.31-26.18.580.74-
2022/123.31-16.4511.7330.3819.8610.750.62-
2022/113.9613.9955.8927.0720.9410.390.65主要係來自於子公司營收成長影響所致
2022/103.4817.6878.9723.116.468.840.76主要係來自於子公司營收成長影響所致
2022/92.9522.4315.8419.639.687.540.97-
2022/82.4111.092.7916.678.668.040.91-
2022/72.17-37.0715.6614.269.727.40.99-
2022/63.4594.2870.312.098.716.591.09主係因上海堃霖先前疫情關係,導致四、五月份貨皆在本月份陸續出貨,因此造成本月銷貨收入較去年同期增幅超過50%以上
2022/51.7830.77-17.38.64-5.05.61.28-
2022/41.36-44.99-20.386.86-1.25.091.41-
2022/32.4795.115.65.55.045.51.12-
2022/21.27-28.5-7.823.04-2.226.01.03-
2022/11.77-40.252.211.772.217.270.85-
2021/122.9616.56-7.2125.34-3.627.450.77-
2021/112.5430.879.9422.38-3.137.030.81-
2021/101.94-23.82-31.5119.84-4.586.840.84-
2021/92.558.632.6217.89-0.336.770.82-
2021/82.3525.042.4615.35-0.816.250.89-
2021/71.88-7.3526.4813.0-5.976.050.92-
2021/62.03-5.65-34.2111.12-9.875.880.86-
2021/52.1525.9-10.219.09-1.775.990.84-
2021/41.71-20.12-19.216.951.165.210.96-
2021/32.1455.561.715.2410.215.240.85-
2021/21.37-20.712.293.116.926.30.71-
2021/11.73-45.7631.881.7331.887.240.62-
2020/123.1938.110.3426.3-1.788.340.5-
2020/112.31-18.465.2623.1-2.077.630.54-
2020/102.8414.14-10.1520.79-2.826.970.59-
2020/92.4850.8-7.1417.96-1.565.620.88-
2020/81.6510.97-23.2315.47-0.66.210.8-
2020/71.48-51.81-2.013.823.016.960.71-
2020/63.0828.7624.9112.343.657.580.56-
2020/52.3913.2733.029.26-1.896.60.65-
2020/42.110.573.776.87-10.115.550.77-
2020/32.156.44-19.84.76-15.164.761.05-
2020/21.342.2123.012.66-11.095.840.85-
2020/11.31-58.73-30.721.31-30.726.690.74-
2019/123.1844.87-15.1526.77-9.968.530.5-
2019/112.2-30.416.1923.59-9.218.030.53-
2019/103.1617.9851.0121.4-10.557.980.54主要係來自於子公司營收成長影響所致
2019/92.6824.67-1.1318.24-16.446.340.78-
2019/82.1541.65-4.0215.56-18.616.130.8-
2019/71.51-38.57-56.6813.42-20.545.780.85主要係來自於子公司營收衰退及台灣客戶端需求下降,導致客戶延遲拉貨所致
2019/62.4737.12-1.9811.9-11.16.30.73-
2019/51.8-11.63-8.699.44-13.210.0N/A-
2019/42.04-22.28-19.457.64-14.210.0N/A-
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
存貨銷售比
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/12.052023/11.312022/11.772021/11.732020/11.31
2024/21.642023/22.092022/21.272021/21.372020/21.34
2024/33.592023/33.192022/32.472021/32.142020/32.1
N/AN/A2023/42.072022/41.362021/41.712020/42.11
N/AN/A2023/52.522022/51.782021/52.152020/52.39
N/AN/A2023/62.292022/63.452021/62.032020/63.08
N/AN/A2023/72.982022/72.172021/71.882020/71.48
N/AN/A2023/83.372022/82.412021/82.352020/81.65
N/AN/A2023/93.042022/92.952021/92.552020/92.48
N/AN/A2023/101.772022/103.482021/101.942020/102.84
N/AN/A2023/114.772022/113.962021/112.542020/112.31
N/AN/A2023/125.382022/123.312021/122.962020/123.19
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 21.54%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
23Q4 (20)1.64-30.2157.69
23Q3 (19)2.3544.17-2.89
23Q2 (18)1.6324.43-20.87
23Q1 (17)1.3125.96-5.07
22Q4 (16)1.04-57.022.97
22Q3 (15)2.4217.48101.67
22Q2 (14)2.0649.2859.69
22Q1 (13)1.3836.6323.21
21Q4 (12)1.01-15.833.06
21Q3 (11)1.2-6.989.09
21Q2 (10)1.2915.1825.24
21Q1 (9)1.1214.2925.84
20Q4 (8)0.98-10.9122.5
20Q3 (7)1.16.823.6
20Q2 (6)1.0315.7321.18
20Q1 (5)0.8911.253.49
19Q4 (4)0.8-10.110.0
19Q3 (3)0.894.710.0
19Q2 (2)0.85-1.160.0
19Q1 (1)0.860.00.0

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