Bear Market Bottom

Signpost	1974/1	1982/7	1987/11	1990/10	2002/9	2009/2	2020/3	Now
Fed starts to stop raising or lowering rates	✔	✔	✔	✔	✔	✔	✔
Unemployment starts to rise	✔	✔		✔	✔	✔	✔
AAII more bearish than bullish				✔	✔	✔	✔	✔
ERP is 75 basis points above 12-month low	✔	✔	✔	✔	✔	✔	✔
Two-year Treasury yields fall		✔	✔	✔	✔	✔	✔	✔
The yield curve is starting to steepen		✔	✔	✔	✔	✔	✔
SSPY price-earnings ratio + CPI < 20	✔	✔	✔	✔	✔	✔	✔
PMI Improves		✔	✔	✔	✔	✔	✔