玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/31.0439.1940.953.1985.983.19N/A基期較低
2024/20.75-46.4843.452.15120.113.45N/A基期較低
2024/11.47.17208.271.4208.273.82N/A基期較低
2023/121.316.26163.9410.5812.633.40.62基期較低
2023/111.1215.32160.039.274.223.170.67前期基期較低。
2023/100.97-9.5898.798.15-3.712.970.71前期基期較低。
2023/91.0816.4264.747.18-10.02.830.82前期基期較低。
2023/80.9211.4121.366.1-16.672.550.91-
2023/70.834.3-0.075.18-21.092.550.91-
2023/60.8-14.04-19.84.35-24.132.631.15-
2023/50.931.43-10.033.55-25.042.581.18-
2023/40.9123.44-10.12.63-29.22.171.4-
2023/30.7441.66-33.21.71-36.41.711.93-
2023/20.5214.99-31.970.98-38.621.472.25-
2023/10.45-8.23-44.820.45-44.821.382.4-
2022/120.4914.53-40.169.39-2.821.422.13-
2022/110.43-11.83-48.218.90.661.571.92-
2022/100.49-25.07-40.488.465.751.91.59-
2022/90.65-14.23-24.737.9711.052.241.23-
2022/80.76-8.26-9.277.3215.962.581.07-
2022/70.83-16.29-10.856.5619.842.850.97-
2022/60.99-3.56-1.365.7326.133.030.43-
2022/51.031.3624.354.7433.953.150.41-
2022/41.01-8.2861.983.7136.882.890.45產品線擴充及整體產業需求暢旺。
2022/31.1144.2661.762.6929.342.690.3產品線擴充及整體產業需求暢旺。
2022/20.77-6.7233.241.5913.52.410.34-
2022/10.82-0.49-0.280.82-0.282.480.33-
2021/120.83-0.8533.919.6641.652.480.23-
2021/110.831.3224.988.8442.422.520.23-
2021/100.82-5.2330.138.044.522.530.23-
2021/90.873.3750.747.1846.382.640.14產品線擴充及整體產業暢旺。
2021/80.84-9.8640.696.3145.82.780.14-
2021/70.93-7.3745.695.4746.612.760.14-
2021/61.0121.5871.734.5446.812.460.16產品線擴充及整體產業需求暢旺
2021/50.8332.0332.293.5440.992.140.18-
2021/40.63-8.41.842.7143.871.890.21-
2021/30.6818.8346.32.0864.252.080.17產品線擴充及整體產業需求暢旺
2021/20.58-30.1953.461.474.722.020.17產品線擴充及整體產業需求暢旺
2021/10.8233.6293.420.8293.422.110.17產品線擴充及整體產業暢旺
2020/120.62-7.4611.056.8230.751.920.23-
2020/110.675.499.796.233.091.870.24-
2020/100.639.774.755.5436.581.80.25-
2020/90.58-3.5140.014.9142.151.810.38-
2020/80.6-6.6561.394.3342.441.820.38前期基期較低。
2020/70.649.1636.413.7339.821.850.37-
2020/60.59-6.3321.053.0940.541.830.5-
2020/50.631.6464.442.5146.031.710.53去年同期比較基期較低,外加新冠疫情減緩。
2020/40.6131.5738.391.8840.81.460.62-
2020/30.4724.6452.621.2742.01.270.69108/3月營收受中美貿易及虛擬貨幣退潮影響,故基期較低,109/3月下游經銷商恢復正常拉貨。
2020/20.37-12.0131.860.836.461.360.65-
2020/10.43-23.2740.770.4340.771.590.55-
2019/120.56-8.5160.525.2211.761.770.36107/12月營收受中美貿易及虛擬貨幣退潮影響,故基期較低,108/12月下游經銷商恢復正常拉貨。
2019/110.610.6448.764.667.861.620.39-
2019/100.646.7396.854.053.591.380.46107/10受美中貿易戰影響及虛擬貨幣退潮2大因素影響下游經銷商拉貨保守,故基期較低,108/10下游經銷商回補庫存及恢復正常拉貨
2019/90.4111.2249.473.45-4.321.250.37-
2019/80.37-21.1113.793.04-8.761.320.35-
2019/70.47-3.1236.692.67-11.21.330.35-
2019/60.4827.2413.672.2-17.361.310.28-
2019/50.38-14.45-23.951.72-23.260.0N/A-
2019/40.4445.111.61.34-23.070.0N/A-
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
存貨銷售比
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/11.42023/10.452022/10.822021/10.822020/10.43
2024/20.752023/20.522022/20.772021/20.582020/20.37
2024/31.042023/30.742022/31.112021/30.682020/30.47
N/AN/A2023/40.912022/41.012021/40.632020/40.61
N/AN/A2023/50.932022/51.032021/50.832020/50.63
N/AN/A2023/60.82022/60.992021/61.012020/60.59
N/AN/A2023/70.832022/70.832021/70.932020/70.64
N/AN/A2023/80.922022/80.762021/80.842020/80.6
N/AN/A2023/91.082022/90.652021/90.872020/90.58
N/AN/A2023/100.972022/100.492021/100.822020/100.63
N/AN/A2023/111.122022/110.432021/110.832020/110.67
N/AN/A2023/121.32022/120.492021/120.832020/120.62
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季
合約負債 QoQ YoY

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